Gen John de Chastelain, head of the International Commission on Decommissioning, which has the vital role of determining whether a deal on an executive and paramilitary weapons can be struck by Wednesday, should learn today if some form of commitment on disarmament will be forthcoming from the IRA.
Over the weekend, the Ulster Unionist Party leader, Mr David Trimble, effectively challenged Sinn Fein to exact a pledge from the IRA to disarm by May 2000. Ahead of today's negotiations, which will be chaired by the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, and the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, he warned that the Belfast Agreement could collapse if a republican promise to decommission was not forthcoming.
The UUP's security spokesman, Mr Ken Maginnis, dramatically raised the stakes last night by telling the British government that it would have to talk directly to the IRA if Sinn Fein continued to maintain that it could not commit the republican movement to decommissioning.
His comments to The Irish Times came just hours after Sinn Fein's chief negotiator, Mr Martin McGuinness, told BBC's On the Record programme: "I cannot speak on behalf of the IRA."
Gen de Chastelain should receive a clear indication of whether the IRA will sign up to such a commitment when Sinn Fein responds today to his questions on whether it accepts that "all paramilitary arms" must be decommissioned by May 22nd, 2000. Sinn Fein must also respond to another crucial question asking it to determine the willingness of the IRA to disarm by May next year. Gen de Chastelain wants to know whether the IRA is willing to give his commission a "firm basis" for expecting decommissioning by May 2000.
Mr Trimble, in the aftermath of Friday's Stormont talks involving Mr Blair and Mr Ahern, has been placing his emphasis on a commitment that the IRA will decommission rather than concentrating on the line of guns "up front".
While this would appear to be a shift from the UUP demand for some prior IRA disarmament before Sinn Fein can be admitted into an executive, the party is still sending out conflicting signals on the issue.
The SDLP deputy leader, Mr Seamus Mallon, saw Mr Trimble's comments as an indication that the demand for prior disarmament would not be met. But he believed that there would be a recognition from republicans that there was "an imperative now to accept that there is an obligation to decommission within the time specified within the agreement".
However, a spokesman for Mr Trimble insisted that the prior decommissioning requirement still stood. "The position of the UUP is very clear: there has to be an actual start to the process of decommissioning of IRA weapons before Sinn Fein is admitted to the executive", he said.
Mr Jeffrey Donaldson, the Lagan Valley MP, who has rejoined the UUP's negotiating team at Mr Trimble's request, was also maintaining a firm line on prior disarmament. He said that Mr Blair should think again if he believed that he could "force" unionists to sit in an executive with Sinn Fein without some initial disarmament.
Mr Trimble said yesterday that he feared the agreement would collapse if a pledge to decommission was not forthcoming in the three days of talks leading up to Mr Blair's Wednesday deadline for a deal. "I want to see the leaders of the republican movement across the table tell the rest of us that they accept that they have an obligation to decommission all paramilitary weapons by May 2000," he said on BBC's Breakfast with Frost programme..
The Sinn Fein president, Mr Gerry Adams, said that a deal was "possible". He described the current talks as the "most critical since partition", adding: "Unionists must understand that failure to strike a deal must mean the end of the Assembly. No deal by Wednesday should mean no Assembly on Thursday."