Both Labour and the Tories are reacting to the Lib Dems' wish for more proportionality, writes MARK HENNESSY
MAY 10th is an auspicious day in British history, and so it proved yesterday. Seventy years ago yesterday, Winston Churchill took over from Neville Chamberlain – two days after the latter had lost the confidence of the House of Commons.
Standing outside No. 10 Downing Street, prime minister Gordon Brown, himself a historian of quality, announced that he would stand down as party leader and that coalition negotiations were to open with the Liberal Democrats.
However, he is not going just yet. He could have done so immediately, and have been replaced temporarily by deputy leader Harriet Harman. Instead, he will stay until Labour’s September conference.
Since Thursday’s election, it was always clear that Labour was prepared to pay a higher price for the support of the Liberal Democrats; but it feared it would not get the chance to do so.
Talks between Conservative and Liberal Democrat negotiators had made progress, though matters began to fray when the Liberal Democrats team went back to consult with colleagues. After three hours David Laws emerged to say that they were going to go back to the Conservatives for “clarifications”.
Elsewhere in the building, David Cameron met small groups of Conservative MPs – half of them first-timers, gauging how much they would bear as much as informing them on the talks.
Within 75 minutes, Brown had emerged to announce that Nick Clegg had contacted him – and relations between the two, it must be said, are pretty poisonous – to seek the opening of formal negotiations.
Most importantly, Clegg, seeking to up the ante substantially on the Conservatives, had decided to involve Labour without waiting for the outcome of the 6pm meeting of Cameron’s backbenchers.
Clegg, however, is in some difficulty. His membership is left-leaning, while many of those who voted for the party did so to keep the Conservatives out. And they will not thank him for going into government with them now.
The Conservative leader has been keen to reach a deal with the Liberal Democrats, believing that he needs a decent majority in the Commons to deal with tough decisions. Up to now, the best on offer to the Liberal Democrats was a parliamentary inquiry and a free vote of MPs. By 7pm, that had been increased to a referendum on the introduction of the Alternative Vote system.
Before the election, Brown offered an Alternative Vote referendum – AV is not a proportional system, but does require MPs to have 50 per cent support in their constituencies. Extraordinarily, Labour is now offering AV without a referendum, followed by a referendum on a more proportional system. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have offered the Liberal Democrats a fixed-term parliament.
The Liberal Democrats have long wanted proper proportional representation, with single transferable ballots and multi-seat constituencies. And they know that this is their once-in-a-century opportunity.
So far, neither Labour nor the Conservatives are offering this, and it is doubtful if Labour promises on electoral reform could be cashed in as so many of its MPs refuse to accept the end of first-past-the-post.
There are other serious hurdles facing a deal with Labour. Firstly, Clegg would not know who is going to be Labour’s leader before he signs. David Miliband, or his brother Ed, or, indeed, Alan Johnson could win a ballot.
None of them would be a difficulty for Clegg, but Brown’s closest ally, Ed Balls, supported by left-wing MPs and powerful trades’ unions, could bel. Equally, a Labour/Liberal Democrat alliance, with 315 seats, would not have a majority without further support from outside.
Gordon Brown’s gamble may not secure Labour’s place in office, but, at the very least, he has secured the Liberal Democrats a better deal from the Tories. One of the stranger results of a very strange day.