THREE months after the BSE crisis broke, the British Government faces a crunch week of meetings it hopes will begin to deescalate the beef war.
Failure will mean acrimonious exchanges at the imminent Florence summit, and the likely blighting of the first months of the Irish EU presidency.
Today in Rome, at a meeting to prepare for the summit, EU foreign ministers will get the first chance to debate the five page British framework for the lifting of the export ban.
Although they will not be voting on the issue, broad support for the package could allow the Commission tomorrow in Strasbourg to adopt its own position on the proposals.
Only then, if the Commission's own proposals are sufficiently close to those of the British, $5 there a prospect of London lifting its non co-operation policy for the Florence summit.
Sources close to the Commission say the British framework document is broadly acceptable as it addresses the key issues but does not attempt to bypass normal decision making procedures.
Once it is agreed, they say, the detail can be fleshed out. The Commission's Standing Veterinary Committee (SVC), which brings together all the member states' senior veterinary officers, started its consideration of the overall British BSE eradication programme on Friday and will continue it on Wednesday, but Commission sources say it is unlikely to be able to approve the programme this week.
The Commission itself is to press for a significant amendment to the programme by insisting that the cull of at risk animals be extended from an estimated 80,000 by another fifth.
The animals to be culled in the original proposal are those born in 1990-93, at the same time and in the same herds as infected animals. The tracing of those animals is relatively straightforward. But Britain is understood to have real difficulties tracing animals born in 1989, which the Commission would like to see culled too.
The British framework package, a copy of which has been seen by The Irish Times, does not propose making any of the stages in the lifting of the ban automatic but sets out the requirements for each stage then, crucially for most member states, "the decisions are within the competence of the Commission operating in accordance with the procedures of the SVC". In other words the pace will be determined by the Commission and SVC in effect the member states on the basis of reports they receive on the success of the implementation.
The document suggests five consecutive stages in the lifting of the export ban
. the removal of the ban on exports to third countries once the Commission is assured that re-export into the EU is not possible
. a lifting of the ban on the export, of embryos, once the Commission's scientists have cleared it
. a lifting of the ban on animals born after new controls on feed stuffs have been put in place (e.g., September 1st, 1996) and been verified by Commission inspectors
. a lifting of the ban on cattle from certified BSE free herds allowing the sale of beef within Britain first and then for export, subject to Commission inspection of the new registration procedures. In this case exemptions would also be made to allow some cattle over 30 months to be sold for food
. finally, a lifting of the export ban on beef under 30 months, subject to inspectors being satisfied that slaughtering and rendering procedures are being applied rigorously and that there is a complete exclusion of older uncertified animals from the food chain.
If the framework is accepted and the eradication plan also approved, it is still unlikely that the final and most substantial phase of the lifting of the ban could be agreed before well into next year.
