MR JOHN MAJOR will almost certainly face a confidence vote in the Commons next week if he is defeated at the end of Monday's crucial debate on the Scott Report.
And it emerged last night that, under House of Commons rules, any confidence debate might be more likely to take place on Wednesday the favoured date for an Anglo Irish summit than on Tuesday, as had been widely assumed.
The Prime Minister's gathering domestic crisis could therefore intrude on Anglo-Irish plans if only on matters of timing and quite possibly on the substantive policy matters which remain to be decided if a summit is to go ahead.
As things stand, MPs on Monday night will vote on a technical motion to adjourn the House.
The Opposition parties have protested at the absence of a substantive motion on the subject of the Scott Report. But if the position remains, and the motion to adjourn is carried by the Opposition, it appears the House would adjourn immediately and that there would be no opportunity for the presentation of a confidence motion.
Westminster sources say if Mr Major tabled a confidence motion the following morning, Tuesday, it could technically take precedence over the scheduled business but previous convention suggests it would be dealt with on the Wednesday or even Thursday.
If the Prime Minister chose to leave the initiative to Mr Tony Blair, a Labour motion of no confidence would not take priority on Tuesday.
In any event, Dublin is closely monitoring each and every twist in the Westminster drama as the Ulster Unionists and the DUP seek to maximise their influence over Mr Major.
The defection of Mr Peter Thurnham MP on Thursday night dramatically underlined Mr Major's precarious position. His technical majority in the Commons over all other parties is just two
The DUP yesterday threw Mr Major something of a lifeline with the indication that its three MPs will not vote. But the outcome of Monday's vote would remain on a knife edge if, as is widely expected, Tory MP Richard Shepherd votes against the government and his colleague, Mr Rupert Allason, were to abstain. Assuming no more extensive Tory rebellion and making no allowance for unpredictable absences on either side through illness or misfortune the nine Ulster Unionists would be in a position to determine the result.
The position earlier in the week was that a majority of the Ulster Unionists favoured abstention. But Mr David Trimble has not foreclosed on the options. And, in time honoured fashion, the nine will make a final decision close to Monday night's division.