Crowing coming from London may be premature

MR JOHN Major and Sir Patrick Mayhew last night declared themselves well content

MR JOHN Major and Sir Patrick Mayhew last night declared themselves well content. And, at one level at least, their crowing was easy to understand.

After all the punditry, and despite the weather, the people of Northern Ireland cast their votes on a scale not far off general election levels.

Dublin, the SDLP and Sinn Fein had railed against the "elective process as a precursor to talks. But, in the end, the parties had no choice but to participate. An astonishing 900 odd candidates put themselves forward for election to the forum.

The results at least contained none of the worst case scenarios foreseen by British ministers and officials as they looked beyond the election to the all party negotiations, due to start on June 10th.

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The Northern Ireland Office had picked up that the Rev Ian Paisley was performing well. But while yesterday's results were a definite blow to Mr David Trimble, the Ulster Unionists could yet claim to have emerged as the largest single party.

More crucially, from London's perspective, the SDLP did not manage to emerge top of the heap. Still more importantly, Sinn Fein's vote did not collapse. Ministers were clear before the vent that a significant reduction n republican support would remove any lingering hopes for the reinstatement of the IRA ceasefire.

As it is, Sinn Fein has prospered under the detested elective process, at the expense of the SDLP. If electoral reward is part of Mr Adams's motivation and important in the ongoing debate with his colleagues then the peace party" within the republican movement has been considerably strengthened.

British sources last night certainly dismissed the immediate conclusion of some commentators that Sinn Fein's "triumph" would necessarily militate against a renewed ceasefire.

Mr Major immediately went on the offensive, hailing the elections as "a great boost to the peace process" and challenging the IRA to declare an "unequivocal ceasefire" to open the door to Sinn Fein's participation in the talks.

However, more careful reflection on the results should quickly puncture London's self satisfied mood. Dublin has long since abandoned the notion that a settlement in the North can be constructed from within the political centre. Hence the "Irish peace initiative" with its deliberate pitch to the extremes.

London has always maintained the two options exist cheek by jowl. But the "centre ground" has taken a battering. The Alliance vote is down. And despite Glengall Street's gloss, this UUP performance trails previous poors in European, local government or Westminster contests.

Combine the DUP vote with Mr Robert McCartney's and you have a unionist community split down the middle, fearful and deeply distrustful of the peace process.

Even allowing that some SDLP voters "lent" their vote to Sinn Fein, Mr Adams will produce the definitive interpretation of the republican mandate following the bombing at Canary Wharf.

There is an argument that the prospects for a ceasefire are enhanced. But it is equally possible that Sinn Fein and the IRA will be in no rush to come to a view about that, arguing that the party's mandate should be respected.

And even if republicans bow to the reality that neither government can yield on its stated positions on a ceasefire, the essential prerequisite, surely, will be a further fudge or compromise on the issue of decommissioning.

Before yesterday's declarations, the indications were that London and Dublin were already moving in that direction. But the assumption in London appeared to be chat Mr Trimble would find the necessary flexibility to permit them to move things forward.

The likelihood, in crude terms, is that Sinn Fein's decisive next moves will be calculated to underline the fact that Mr Trimble's "room for manoeuvre" is now negligible.

Those who grandly dismissed Ian Paisley in their pre-election planning have received a sharp response from unionist voters. And with a general election on the horizon, the UUP may find itself more amenable to talk of a pan unionist approach.

The stage is thus set for the next steps in the power play. The peace process may take a while longer.