Thousands of Croats queued for a second day yesterday to glimpse the body of their president, Dr Franjo Tudjman, with many unsure whether the death will help or hinder the chances of his party keeping control in next month's elections.
The "Tudjman effect" may see voters decide to support his Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), which has been slipping in the opinion polls.
Dr Tudjman was popular, having led the country through war and devastation to independence in a turbulent decade, and this popularity may extend to the party he created. "They say one funeral is worth a thousand preelection meetings," said Mr Tihomir Ladisic, spokesman for the main opposition alliance of liberal and social democratic parties.
In death, as in life, Dr Tudj man, who was 77, dominates Croatia: theatres, cafes and cinemas are closed for three days of official mourning. Television and radio are broadcasting solemn music, and the man famous for designing his own military-style uniforms will be buried in a massive state funeral today. Yet he and his party had lost some popularity in recent years: Like many a wartime leader, his hard-line stance was less welcome in more tranquil times, especially with mounting accusations that the HDZ and its cronies were indulging in massive corruption.
Dr Tudjman, a communist turned nationalist, had fallen out with the West after supporting Bosnian Croats in their ethnic cleansing of Muslims in 1993.
Opinion polls before Dr Tudj man was taken to hospital on November 1st showed the HDZ on the ropes as the economy faltered. Some of his opponents believe sympathy for the president will not extend to his party. "The departure of Franjo Tudjman from the political scene causes great changes in Croatia," said Mr Stipe Mesic, a former president of communist Yugoslavia and now an official with the opposition Croatian People's Party.
"We expect to make the government after the elections. The HDZ is divided. Whoever they put forward, they will not win."
What may seal the fate of the HDZ is the former president's habit of making sure no one personality could dominate. He had no deputy and no clear successor, and in-fighting has already broken out in the party.
The favourite HDZ candidate to stand for the presidency is the Foreign Minister, Mr Mate Granic, a noted pragmatist and proponent of stronger ties with the West. But he may be opposed by hard-line nationalists in the party, many of them Croats not from Croatia but from neighbouring Bosnia who continue to push for a separate Croat entity linked to their "mother country".
The only head of state to have confirmed his attendance at the funeral has been President Suleyman Demirel of Turkey. President Slobodan Milosevic of Yugoslavia sent his condolences to Dr Tudjman's family, although the official news agency, Tanjug, accused him of having perpetrated a "pogrom against the Serb people" and being worse than Croatia's fascist second World War leaders.
AFP reports from The Hague:
Dr Tudjman was to be indicted by the UN war crimes tribunal in The Hague, the Dutch news agency ANP said yesterday. Asked whether it was a shame that all the work was for nothing, the investigator working on the case replied: "Indeed, but at least he has been mentioned here - that will go down in history," ANP reported.
Mr Paul Risley, a spokesman for the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, said he had no comment, but reiterated that the tribunal did not issue posthumous indictments.
Croatia has had a stormy relationship with the tribunal, which has accused Zagreb of refusing to hand over war crimes suspects as well as documents relating to two 1995 operations when the Croatian army retook Serb-occupied territory.
On Thursday, the Croatian Justice Minister, Mr Zvonimir Separovic, demanded the resignation of the deputy prosecutor, Mr Graham Blewitt, after he expressed hopes for improved co-operation from Zagreb after Dr Tudjman's death.