CHINA:China's actions may have damaged the chances of the Beijing-friendly KMT party, writes Clifford Coonan
CHINA'S VIOLENT crackdown on independence rioters in Tibet is dominating presidential elections in Taiwan and may damage the chances of the Beijing-friendly Nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) of staging what was expected to be a convincing victory in the only democratic vote on Chinese soil.
KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou's big lead over rival Frank Hsieh from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who favours independence and a tougher line towards Beijing, has been eroded in the last few days as Taiwan's voters react to the crushing of dissent in Tibet.
The election is crucial as the result will dictate whether the Taiwan Strait remains one of the potential flashpoints in Asia or if relations with mainland China will become closer. Underlining the sensitive nature of the elections, two US aircraft carriers have been sent to the Taiwan region for training exercises.
Tibet and Taiwan are the two biggest issues facing the mainland Chinese these days. Beijing sees Taiwan as a renegade province ever since Chiang Kai-shek's KMT lost the civil war with Mao Zedong's communists and fled to the island in 1949. One year later, China sent the People's Liberation Army into Tibet, which was shaken by anti-China rioting last week.
"This is a choice between a democratic Taiwan and Communist China," the DPP said in newspaper ads yesterday.
Mr Hsieh is campaigning this week that to vote for the KMT could make Taiwan "a second Tibet". "What Wen Jiabao says and what Ma says are pretty much the same, right? It's that Taiwan is part of China," Mr Hsieh said this week.
Not be outdone, Mr Ma (57), a Harvard-educated lawyer who was formerly mayor of Taipei and who campaigned on a platform of closer business links with China to help boost the economy, has also adopted a much more anti-China approach.
He described premier Wen Jiabao's tentative offer of peace talks with the Dalai Lama as "arrogant, absurd and self-righteous" and also suggested an Olympic boycott if the violence continues in Tibet. On the streets of Taipei, Tibet was much on people's minds and people seem genuinely scared. There have been candlelit vigils with maroon-robed monks and local Tibetans for those believed killed by soldiers or police in Tibetan areas of China since last week's protests.
"That could be us. Today it's Tibet but tomorrow the Chinese could do that in Taiwan," said one taxi driver. Other people said it was the biggest crisis Taiwan had faced since China fired missiles into the Taiwan Strait in 1996, trying to intimidate voters during an election. The US recognises China, but has promised to back Taiwan if Beijing ever invades.
"In the past, not too many people cared about the Tibetan issue but when it came out it shows the true nature of the Chinese government," said Lin Asoka (26), a law student. "It's gotten people scared," said Ms Lin, who said she would be voting for Mr Hsieh.
The KMT ran Taiwan as a one-party state for 51 years and has been trying to regain the presidency since losing the office to incumbent president Chen Shui-bian in 2000 and again in 2004.
Although the KMT was the Communist Party's civil war enemy, these days the KMT leadership wants more trade with China and supports reunification.
Lo Chih-cheng, director of the political science department of Soochow University in Taipei, said that Beijing's reaction to the protests in Tibet had undermined much of the goodwill China had built up in the island of 23 million people in the wake of a more conciliatory line in recent months.
"The China issue has been a big part of the campaign. There is fear out there. China did the wrong thing at the wrong time. What they did in Tibet has caused a lot of concern in Taiwan and this will have an effect, especially in a tight race," said Mr Lo.
A complicating factor in the election is a referendum on whether to apply for UN membership in the name of Taiwan. China, the US, Japan and many European countries including Ireland have protested against this, which is pointless anyway as China has a veto on the UN Security Council.
China sees it as a plebiscite on independence, but for many Taiwanese it is a vote aimed at raising Taiwan's international profile.
"I think it's important for Taiwan to vote on the referendum. We should vote on it because we are so isolated internationally," said Ms Lin, who said she was considering voting for the KMT in the presidency and for the DPP line in the referendum.
Taiwanese investors have spent €65 billion on the mainland and both candidates remain committed to various measures to bring the two sides closer, including the introduction of regular direct flights to China and a relaxing of tough China investment rules.
Mr Ma still leads Mr Hsieh in opinion surveys by 5 to 10 per cent, as the KMT still has the support of those who worry that the island may not be able to continue to thrive economically without forging closer links with Beijing.
"I am going to vote KMT because I think that the economy is most important and I think the KMT will do a better job. It's time for change so I think we should give Ma Ying-jeou a chance," said Anita Yang (25), a student.