A Taoiseach can rarely have rated a relatively young minister as highly as Mr Bertie Ahern rates Mr Brian Cowen. He sees him as the brightest politician in his Cabinet and the leading contender, ahead of the Minister for Education, Mr Martin, for the next party leadership. Mr Ahern is believed to have moves in mind for both men. On Wednesday, Mr Cowen is expected to move from the Minister for Health's office in dreary Hawkins House to the palatial splendour of Iveagh House.
Mr Martin, meanwhile, is most likely to move from the fine Department of Education office in Marlborough Street to Hawkins House, although a different move is still possible. Should the most likely changes be made, the surroundings will in many ways reflect the tasks facing both men.
For Mr Cowen, foreign affairs is a ministry in which he can attempt to alter his tough, relatively charmless image. Diplomatic is not a word associated with him.
He comes across as an abrasive street-fighting politician. He has just dealt with the almost impossible task of attempting to make the Government look reasonable while confronting the entire membership of one of the State's most well-regarded professions - nursing.
However, there is more to Mr Cowen than the hard-man grandstanding he has often been called upon by Mr Ahern to do. He is very bright, sharp, witty - and sometimes charming. He has handled tough ministries firmly, and Mr Ahern regards him as his most effective asset in Cabinet.
For that reason, the Taoiseach might prefer him in a more central economic ministry rather than in foreign affairs, which is important and prestigious but slightly away from the centre of political activity. However, he owes Mr Cowen - last year he floated his name as a possible EU Commissioner as part of a strategy to get the job for Mr David Byrne; now it's payback time.
If Mr Cowen is going to a department where he can build a positive public image, Mr Martin is believed to be moving in the other direction. In education, a minister can gain much positive publicity through announcing measures to improve the lot of children. In health, where resources are being carefully limited, one can quickly gain the opposite image: that of a bad guy who won't give adequate resources to help the poor, the sick, children, or all three combined.
Some sources say Mr Martin will be happy to move to the Department of Health, where he can show he has policy ideas across a range of areas. However, it is a tough challenge to escape from there politically unscathed, as one of the State's most astute politicians, Mr Michael Noonan, will testify. The Government's public image on health is poor, while on education, it is good.
For this reason, moving Mr Martin to health makes sense.
The counter-argument being advanced in Government circles last night was that the Department of Health needs a minister who will grasp the technocratic detail of the health portfolio and push through reforms, and that a politician with a good public image alone will not turn around the Government's standing on the issue.
This argument sees someone such as Dr Michael Woods, who has served in health before and understands demographics and the public service better than most, getting the position.
However, presuming Mr Martin goes to health to replace Mr Cowen, Mr Ahern could then draw a line under the changes by promoting someone to take the education portfolio. There is some speculation that he will go further, shifting another minister currently in a less prominent portfolio into education and then promoting someone into the more junior Cabinet post.
Thus a move by Dr Woods to education could see a Cabinet newcomer taking the marine portfolio. The Seamus Brennan question is at the heart of the decision as to whom to promote to Cabinet.
A former cabinet minister who has served effectively in the more junior Chief Whip position without complaint, Mr Brennan feels his time has come to return to Cabinet. However, Mr Ahern is understood to be strongly inclined not to move Mr Seamus Brennan from the job he does so well.
His handling of independent deputies as Chief Whip has been invaluable in terms of providing stability. Mr Ahern is concerned that appointing a new chief whip to deal with the four independents would risk upsetting the existing good working relationship. In addition, the Opposition whips - Mr Sean Barrett and Mr Brendan Howlin - are experienced, formidable politicians against whom it would not be prudent to pitch a newcomer.
Ministers of State such as Mr Martin Cullen, Mr Frank Fahey and Mr Chris Flood are put forward as people who could fill the chief whip post should Mr Brennan fulfil his ambition.
Mr Brennan is likely to be disappointed and angered if he is effectively told that he has done his job so well he cannot be promoted. There is some speculation that he could be given a more enhanced role in Government while retaining the Chief Whip post, but what shape that would take is unclear.
Should Mr Brennan be passed over, former PD deputy and now Fianna Fail junior minister, Mr Martin Cullen, is understood to be pushing strongly for promotion. Mr Chris Flood, the Minister of State responsible for local development and the Government's anti-drugs strategy, is also seen as a contender.
This will create a vacancy in the ranks of the ministers of state, but unusually for the normally cautious Mr Ahern, he is believed to be considering demoting two - or possibly more - other junior ministers, thus creating the opportunity to reward three backbenchers.
Ms Mary Hanafin and Mr Eoin Ryan are seen as serious contenders, while Mr Sean Ardagh, Ms Marian McGennis and Mr Billy Kelleher may also be considered.
Mr Brian Lenihan could also have a chance, but may suffer from the Seamus Brennan syndrome: there is a belief that as he is chairing the all-party committee on the Constitution, which is considering the issues of abortion and electoral reform, he should not be moved.