NO DOUBT the most diverse constituency anywhere in Northern Ireland, South Belfast nonetheless represents a key battleground for rival nationalist and unionist parties.
The SDLP holds the Westminster seat here and local MP Alasdair McDonnell will be defending his Assembly seat this time. His party has done well here, bucking the trend in other constituencies.
His former constituency colleague Carmel Hanna has retired and Conall McDevitt, a former PR consultant, is hoping to win election to the seat having been co-opted.
Sinn Féin’s Alex Maskey seems assured of retaining his seat. He stood aside at the last Westminster election in the hope that an electoral deal in other key nationalist marginals could be concluded. The SDLP held the seat with an increased majority and may well have done so regardless of the Sinn Féin withdrawal.
There is no doubt that Sinn Féin votes were “lent” to Dr McDonnell 12 months ago in the Westminster election and these should return to the republican fold.
This will also be a key battle for the main unionist parties. Outgoing health minister Ulster Unionist Michael McGimpsey is running with first-time hopeful Mark Finlay and attempting to make inroads in the DUP vote. Mr McGimpsey has been soundly criticised by his DUP rivals over his tenure at the Department of Health and there will be no love lost between the two main unionist parties. Mr Finlay may well be one to watch for the Ulster Unionists and could attract transfers widely.
The DUP ticket is headed by Jimmy Spratt, a career RUC officer and former chairman of the Police Federation, who is now firmly established in this constituency.
His running mate is Ruth Patterson, a familiar party face following her work as a Belfast City Councillor.
Anna Lo surprised some by taking a seat for Alliance here at the last Assembly election in 2007. The first Stormont member from a so-called ethnic minority, she was born in Hong Kong and appears well-placed to consolidate some ground in South Belfast for her party, which enters this Assembly election with a sense of momentum.
The ballot paper will include a range of smaller parties and independents.
The Greens are running a candidate as is the Workers Party. Also on the political left are candidates from People Before Profit and the Socialist Party.
The strongly Eurosceptic UK Independence Party and a Procapitalism candidate complete the line-up.
– DAN KEENAN