A UNIQUE, unpredictable and independently-minded constituency at the best of times, North Down appears even more volatile this time. Different parties topped the poll here in 2007 and at the previous Assembly election in 2005.
In short this constituency was, for quite some time, averse to the DUP. Now the party is seeking three seats.
The MP is Lady [Sylvia] Hermon, formerly of the Ulster Unionists, who went independent after her party hooked up with the Tories under the ill-thought out Ulster Conservatives and Unionists – New Force (UCUNF) project. Defending her seat 12 months ago in arguably the most Conservative-inclined area in Northern Ireland, she romped home with nearly 64 per cent of the popular vote.
Her former UUP friend, Alan McFarland, will be hoping the same political decision works for him. He too quit the Ulster Unionists, spending the final months of the last Assembly on the independent side, and is now pushing for re-election.
It is hard to predict how the Hermon mega-vote will be distributed in a PR election.
Standing in the way is the DUP which once did not even stand a candidate in North Down.
Peter Weir, once a member of the same Ulster Unionist branch as Lady Hermon, champions the local DUP colours, ably supported by Alex Easton who is an assiduous local worker.
Gordon Dunne completes the DUP ticket and is in no way an also-ran.
The UUP is hoping the litany of defections over the years will not dent its chances of pressing for a second seat. Assembly veteran Lesley Cree is defending his seat alongside new boy Colin Breen.
The party lost nearly a third of its total in last year’s Westminster election and some of those who plumped for Lady Hermon are expected to return.
Further confusion is sown by the decision of the Greens’ only Assembly member, Brian Wilson (himself a former Independent and Alliance candidate) not to defend his seat. The party’s Northern leader Steven Agnew, takes up the challenge hoping that the rout of Green candidates in the Dáil will not be replicated at Stormont. Alliance is running two candidates here – one of only four constituencies out of the 18 where they have opted to do this.
Stephen Farry, a capable and regarded Assembly member, is running again accompanied by Anne Wilson who happens to be married to the outgoing Green.
There isn’t a hope of a nationalist quota here but the destination of Sinn Féin and SDLP preferences could help the Greens and Alliance.
Local Issues: Environmental and planning issues are to the fore locally.
Much local concern at plans for on-street parking and health service reforms with many locals employed at the Ulster Hospital in nearby Dundonald.