THIS IS the constituency once dominated by former Ulster Unionist leader James Molyneaux. At one time he held the largest parliamentary majority in Westminster.
That torch was passed on to Jeffrey Donaldson, who consolidated the seat for the DUP following his defection in 2003.
His new party holds three of the six seats here and the party is not content with that.
Donaldson is now full-time on Westminster duty and it is time for some in the next DUP generation to take a step forward.
Outgoing environment minister Edwin Poots is defending his seat alongside Jonathan Craig. Paul Givan, another of the young, driven and articulate 20-somethings in the party who was co-opted to fill Donaldson’s seat, is hoping to win his own mandate.
Brenda Hale completes the ticket and the party has a chance of winning all four seats.
Standing in the way is the Ulster Unionists – or at least the self-proclaimed “liberal wing” of the party in the person of defeated leadership candidate Basil McCrea. There is a world of a difference between McCrea and the now party leader Tom Elliott in terms of policy and outlook.
Mark Hill accompanies McCrea, who still privately has his eye on the leadership. Boundary changes have made Lagan valley yet more unionist than it was before, hiving off nationalist areas, notably to neighbouring West Belfast.
That may well mean that there is no nationalist quota here. Outgoing Sinn Féin Assembly member Paul Butler is retiring, leaving first-timers Mary-Kate Quinn and the SDLP’s Pat Catney to fight it out. Trevor Lunn has carved out a niche for his party and is pushing not just to retain his quota but to build on it. Alliance is loudly proclaiming the wind is with the party in this election.
Lyle Rea is hoping to make life difficult for the DUP, not just in the Assembly poll but also in the local council elections which are also held on Thursday. In a constituency as overwhelmingly unionist as this, and with no danger of a “split vote” which could aid republicans, Lagan Valley is one area where they should make some kind of mark.
Planning is a contentious issue here and the Greens are running Conor Quinn, hopeful that the desertion of the Green vote is not a trend that crosses the Border.
– DAN KEENAN