The mackerel that brought millions to Donegal is moving further north, and that is almost official. Confirmation of the shift in migratory patterns is expected to be discussed by a working group of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) in Denmark next week. However, a leading Irish expert in both mackerel and herring will give some indication of the changes at an international gathering in Dublin Castle tomorrow.
Mr John Molloy of the Marine Institute's Fisheries Research Centre (FRC) is one of the keynote speakers at the Small Pelagics conference over the next two days.
The northerly shift has been noted by scientists and supertrawler skippers over the past couple of years, at a time when market conditions have also had a dramatic effect on the fishery.
This is of particular significance to Ireland, given that total exports of pelagic (midwater) species accounted for £83 million, or 35 per cent of all fish exports from this State last year.
Markets for the Irish-caught fish range from Germany to the Ivory Coast, Russia to Japan. The Killybegs tank boat fleet of some 23 vessels has depended heavily on the mackerel and horse mackerel fishery, while herring is significant in the Celtic Sea and in the west and north-west.
Mr Molloy acknowledges that climatic factors may have an influence on the movement towards the Norwegian coastline. Able to swim almost 50km an hour, the restless mackerel can never remain stationary because it has no air sac.
Before 1995 three separate mackerel stocks were believed to exist in the north-east Atlantic: the North Sea, western and southern stocks. Due to migratory changes, stock assessment has become increasingly difficult.
Mr Molloy aims to give a summarised "health report" and ICES advice on a range of pelagic species, from mackerel and herring to horse mackerel, sardine, anchovy and blue whiting.
"Generally speaking, the judgment is that most of the stocks are overfished and need to be rebuilt," he said. "ICES is taking the precautionary principle; and as Ireland has signed up to these international agreements we must abide by them."
Of 10 herring stocks, eight are overfished and only two underfished, he said. Ironically, the closure of the Celtic Sea herring fishery some years ago did assist recovery. At that time, however, the demand for herring - which had come to replace cod in some international markets in the late 1980s - had taken a downturn.
9 million, and exports to Romania rose to 3 million. A pelagic market co-ordinator, Mr Jarlath Morris, was also appointed by BIM, and he is due to speak at the conference tomorrow (tues).
The conference will focus on the state of resources, while also taking a comprehensive review and assessment of current and future prospects in global markets for pelagic fish products. Sponsored by BIM, and organised in association with the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO), it has invited an international panel of experts, drawn from business and State agencies all over the world.
"Small Pelagics: Dublin '99" runs in the Burlington Hotel, Dublin, over the next two days with a reception in Dublin Castle tonight hosted by the Minister for the Marine and Natural Resources, Dr Woods. Guest of honour will be the Namibian minister for fisheries and marine resources, Dr Abraham Iyambo.