Pakistan's successful tests of nuclear devices have generated both concern and celebration in the Muslim world, writes Michael Jansen. While governments have spoken of the dangers of proliferation, they have sent encouraging messages to Islamabad. Members of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference, for example, have supported Pakistan's right to test. And, while the United Arab Emirates expressed opposition to the Pakistani tests, the UAE and Saudi Arabia made it clear to Islamabad it would not sanction Pakistan by disrupting oil supplies. People in the Muslim world and the Arab countries have welcomed the Pakistani tests as proof positive that Muslims have the brainpower, application and expertise to develop and build "the bomb". The Saudi press urged Pakistan to follow India's example. When it did, the Gulf press called the Pakistani tests "courageous" and condemned Washington for "punishing Pakistan but not Israel" for building its own bombs. In militantly secular Turkey, however, the government characterised the Indo-Pakistan nuclear race as "worrying in terms of regional and global stability". The press played down the tests.
Tehran also expressed its unease over Pakistani testing which took place in Baluchistan province, just 50 km from the Iranian border. Analysts believe the tests were sited there as a warning to the Shia Islamic Republic of Iran to cease its political competition in Afghanistan with the Sunni Islamic Republic of Pakistan which backs the ruling Taliban.
Although the Muslim public has hailed Pakistan's achievement as an "Islamic bomb", few Muslim governments believe Pakistan will share its bomb-making technology with them. Massive US pressure on Islamabad will prevent proliferation to other Muslim countries. Therefore, it is unlikely that Israel will ever have to face the threat of the hypothetical "Islamic bomb". But this will not stop Israel's regional antagonists from building the bomb. The subcontinental tests have made it almost inevitable that Iran, which is reconstructing two war-damaged nuclear power plants near Busheir, will be the next Asian country to produce its own nuclear weapon.
Russia and China, which provided technology and equipment to India and Pakistan, have already given Iran considerable assistance and could be expected to continue once the hullabaloo over the Indo-Pakistani tests has died down. China, reportedly, has assured Pakistan it will continue financial and technical assistance when the US presidential visit to Beijing is over.
If Tehran were to become nuclear capable, Iran's traditional antagonists, Iraq and Turkey, would certainly strive to join the race. While Iraq is restrained by UN weapons monitors, Ankara should be in a position to launch research once Canada completes the construction of several power plants on the Turkish coast.