AFTER a century and a half of British rule, Hong Kong's rich and mighty will meet today to pick the first post-colonial Chinese leader.
At a gathering to be held under the red flag of communist-ruled China, a shipping tycoon, Mr Tung Chee-hwa, is expected to win the vote by a 400-member Chinese-controlled Selection Committee. The committee has been represented by critics as a travesty of democracy.
A survey by Hong Kong University showed 82.2 per cent expected Mr Tung to win, while 43.4 per cent of respondents would back him if they had the chance to vote. His nearest rival, Mr Ti Liang Yang, would get 27.9 per cent of popular support.
Sovereignty over the territory of 6.3 million people, one of Asia's economic wonders and Britain's last major colony, reverts to China at midnight next June 30th - 202 days from now.
The winner of the vote by the committee will become the chief executive-designate of the Special Administrative Region of China, as Hong Kong will be called from next July 1st.
On the eve of the vote a small band of pro-democracy protesters camped overnight outside the conference centre.
Some politicians and diplomats are concerned about China-style repression. "The people of Hong Kong cannot trust him [Mr Tung] to protect our rights... I cannot see how he is in a position to say no to Beijing on any important issue," said one legislator, Mr Martin Lee.
"Unless there is a complete change in the attitude of these candidates the outlook for human rights in Hong Kong is very bad," said Mr Paul Harris, head of Hong Kong Human Rights Monitor.
But the markets, a barometer of Hong Kong's fortunes, showed bullish optimism. Hong Kong stocks rebounded from recent losses to end 198 points up, the index of China-linked H-shares soared to nine-month highs in the largest one-day gain in history, and forecasters predicted a 1997 property boom.
Publicly espousing "consensus" rather than confrontation with China, and collective duties over individual rights, and blessed by a public handshake from President Jiang Zemin in January, Shanghai-born Mr Tung (59) grabbed 206 votes in the first round of voting last month by the committee.
He only needs 201 to win today. Some Hong Kong newspapers were already putting the finishing touches to Tung-the-victor profiles for today.
If he wins, he will be greeted by a no-confidence debate presented by a legislator, Ms Emily Lau, one of China's loudest critics, in Hong Kong's Legislative Council (Legco). Governor Chris Patten has vowed support for the future leader, whoever he is, in the twilight of British rule.