The battle-lines over the draft European constitution have been drawn. But a long road strewn with referendums, meetings and wrangling lies ahead, writes Denis Staunton, European Correspondent.
Europe's draft constitution starts with a quotation from Thucydides and ends just as uncontroversially with a list of the languages in which the final will be written. Almost everything in between, however, is the focus of fierce dispute - between large and small states, between the European Commission and national governments and between those who want more Europe and those who think there is too much already.
The Commission President, Romano Prodi, condemned the draft this week as lacking in vision and ambition, warning that it could represent a step backwards for the EU. The Danish eurosceptic MEP, Jens-Peter Bonde, was unhappy for different reasons, arguing that the constitution would represent a major step towards creating a single European state.
Both men have reason to be worried because, although the draft constitution envisages more decisions being made at a European level, it effectively wrecks the Commission's long-term ambition to become the government of a united Europe. A leading figure at the convention drawing up the constitution acknowledged this week that the Commission would retain its present role but would receive few new powers.
"The communitarians were expecting the future of Europe to be the Commission becoming almost naturally the government of Europe and the Council [of Ministers, where national governments meet\] almost naturally becoming the second chamber of a European legislature. This is not going to happen," he said.
The convention's chairman, Valery Giscard d'Estaing and his 12-person praesidium, believe that Europe's future lies in creating "common policies through co-ordination, not integration". This means that, although the Commission will retain its leading role in the EU's economic policies, including such areas as trade and industry, it will have little influence over matters such as foreign policy and justice and home affairs.
To the dismay of those who fear a strengthened EU, however, the constitution would abolish national vetoes in almost all policy areas except foreign policy, defence and taxation. Giscard told the annual meeting of the secretive Bilderberg Group in Versailles last week that a proposal that could have led to tax harmonisation was dropped because it would have led to Ireland rejecting the constitution in a referendum.
The most controversial proposal in the draft constitution is to abolish the six-month, rotating presidency and to appoint a full-time president of the European Council, where EU leaders meet at least four times a year. The president, who would have served as an EU prime minister for at least two years, would co-ordinate the work of the European Council, which would become a fully-fledged institution of the EU.
Dublin MEP Proinsias De Rossa, who is a member of the convention, believes that the proposal would lead to unhealthy rivalry between the Commission and the Council.
"If you have an ex-prime minister on a full-time basis running the European Council for a period of two-and-a-half years and perhaps for a further two-and-a-half - for five years, you will inevitably have the growth of an alternative focus of power," he said.
The proposal's champions argue that finding consensus among EU leaders is a full-time job and that the EU needs better political leadership to achieve its goals. Some members of the praesidium acknowledge privately, however, that the appointment of a permanent president would strengthen the Council at the expense of the Commission.
"We want new policies at a European level but these policies must be common, not single policies. That means strengthening the Council," said one.
The draft constitution has alarmed smaller countries by calling for a commission of just 15 members, including an EU foreign minister, who would be answerable to the Council and the Commission President.
The 10 countries that will join the EU next year want to retain the right of each member-state to appoint a commissioner. Ireland has adopted a more flexible approach, favouring a system of rotation as long as all member-states are treated equally.
The big states argue that too many commissioners will make the Commission inefficient and that there are simply not enough jobs to fill 25 posts. But a senior political figure from one of the bigger countries acknowledged that there is another reason behind the move to cut the Commission's size.
"Six commissioners from countries with 70 per cent of the population could be outvoted by the others. This is never openly said, but it is in the back of the mind of almost everybody," he said.
The Government is concerned about a proposal to introduce minimum standards for criminal procedure, a move it fears could lead to the harmonisation of criminal law throughout the EU. Ireland's anxiety is shared by Britain and, to a lesser extent, the Netherlands, but De Rossa believes that such fears are groundless.
"There isn't any intention to harmonise criminal law. That's not what's afoot here. It's to try and ensure that there are ways of dealing with crime that can be co-ordinated so that the criminals or suspected criminals can't escape simply because of the differences in criminal systems," he said.
The convention will meet almost every day for the next two weeks in an attempt to reach consensus on a final text before a meeting of EU leaders in Thessaloniki on June 20th. Later this year, an Inter-Governmental Conference will begin under the Italian presidency to agree a final version of the constitution which is expected to be approved by EU governments early next year, when Ireland holds the presidency.
Italy is understood to favour a short Inter-Governmental Conference during which the governments would adopt without any changes those parts of the constitution that have received consensus at the convention, confining negotiations to those parts that have not been agreed.
Governments can, however, renegotiate the entire text if they choose and the constitution must be approved by all member-states. A number of countries, including Ireland, will ratify the constitution through referendums, a process that is likely to last into 2006.
Giscard has expressed the hope that the constitution will represent a settlement for Europe that will last for half a century. But one of his closest allies on the praesidium suggests that the process of uniting Europe is far from over and that further change could come before the end of the decade.
"This is not the final destination. Any constitution is part of a process. It's an important step in a process, but it's still a process," he said.
Presidential race, the contenders
Tony Blair: Europe's most successful political leader has long been regarded as a natural choice for the job of co-ordinating the EU's work and representing Europe abroad. But Blair's strong support for Washington over Iraq and Britain's foot-dragging over joining the euro have alienated many of his fellow leaders.
Anders Fogh Rasmussen: The Danish prime minister won the admiration of other leaders for his spectacularly efficient handling of Denmark's EU presidency last year. But his chances may have been damaged by his co-operation with a fly-on-the wall TV documentary on the presidency, which showed everyone but himself in an unflattering light.
Wim Kok: The former Dutch prime minister is tipped for almost every major European position that becomes available and is currently heading an EU task force on employment policies. He is popular, articulate and close to the centre of political thinking in the EU, but may be regarded as too old for the job by 2006.
Bertie Ahern: Many EU insiders believe that the first president of the European Council will be from a small country, partly to dispel fears that the post represents a power grab by Europe's bigger powers. The Taoiseach is popular with his European counterparts and could be the first choice of many of the EU's new member-states, but could be regarded by others as insufficiently committed to the European project.