IN the final campaign opinion poll before the 1992 general election, having identified that Fianna Fail would obtain its lowest vote for decades, and that Labour would attain its highest, I commented that the most likely outcome was a coalition government and that this trend would very probably continue into the future, in keeping with the European norm.
Although we are still some distance away from the next general election, there are strong indicators in this latest survey that this 1992 prediction will again benefited. The fact that this viewpoint is shared by quite a number of parties is evident from some recent comments, when a variety of coalition options were publicly aired. One specific outcome is that the electorate is being made aware it will be called upon relatively soon to do its civic duty.
In interpreting the current figures against this background, there may be some significance in the fact that support for most of the parties has tightened up since the June survey three months ago. Minor movements in support for individual parties in the interim are not significant and can largely be ignored unless such individual trends continue. Of greatest relevance is the overall movement towards the undecided category, which means some electors may already be adopting a wait and see position.
At the moment, with the election campaign beginning to simmer, the figures contain strong indicators that no party will obtain an overall majority, and that a coalition government is again the most likely outcome. Currently Fianna Fail has 45 per cent support (core 36 per cent) which in conventional conversion terms, would not deliver a majority of seats.
Neither should it be assumed that the tendency for the party to lose support during the final stages of election campaigns, as happened prior to the 1987 and 1989 elections under Mr Charles Haughey's leadership, will necessarily be repeated. The 1992 election represented a further different set of circumstances for Fianna Fail, in that the then leader was seen to be primarily responsible for the holding of an election which seven in every 10 electors did not favour.
A new situation applies now, in that Fianna Fail will enter the next campaign with a new party leader, and Mr Bruton will fight his first election as Taoiseach.
Fine Gael has obtained 27 per cent, 29 per cent, 27 per cent, and 25 per cent in the last four national elections (including the local elections of 1991) and today's figure of 25 per cent confirms the solidity which has been evident since November 1995, and to a general extent since John Bruton took over as Taoiseach.
Although Lab our Party support gas not reached the dizzy heights of 1992, except on one occasion in November 1994, the party's average performance throughout 1995 has been matched in today's poll at 13 per cent.
The niche which the Progressive Democrats have carved and held since the 1989 general election remains intact and a reduction in support of one percentage point is neither significant nor relevant in isolation. Both the Green Party and Democratic Left are more than holding their respective support levels and since both have continued to do so over the past two years, there is justification for assuming that each will maintain its position.
As has been the case in all elections to date, the crucial floating vote will decide the result, and the current indications are that the number of the undecideds will be at least as extensive as that in the 1992 campaign.
The rating of the Government is relatively satisfactory at 43 per cent, broadly on a par with the June figure, but remains below its 1995 level following John Bruton's appointment as Taoiseach.
In the case of four party leaders - Mary Harney, John Bruton, Bertie Ahern and Dick Spring - individual satisfaction ratings have dropped since June. On the other hand, the rating of Proinsias De Rossa has marginally increased.