Fine Gael has dropped to 31 per cent, while Labour has reached a new high of 25 per cent
TODAY'S Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll reveals a modest recovery in support for both parties of Government.
Support for Fianna Fáil is up three points to 20 per cent, while the Greens are on 4 per cent, an increase of one point since the last Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll was published on September 3rd.
Fine Gael has dropped three points, down to 31 per cent, while Labour has reached a new high of 25 per cent, up one point.
Sinn Féin on 9 per cent and Independents on 11 per cent are each one point lower compared to our previous poll.
It appears that a floor may have been put under the Fianna Fáil vote, for the moment at least.
While it would be reckless to predict a rally in the Fianna Fáil vote on the basis of today’s poll, it would be wrong to consider the findings a dead cat bounce. On a number of fronts, Fianna Fáil and the Government have made notable progress in recent weeks.
On Lisbon, a Yes vote is still the most likely outcome, although it is early days yet. Our poll was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, more than one week before voters have to finally make up their minds.
There has been a marginal increase in the No vote over the past few weeks and the performances of No campaigners in this week’s live TV and radio debates will have reawakened the concerns of recent converts to the Yes cause.
The Government’s performance on the National Asset Management Agency, or more specifically that of Brian Lenihan, has been polished. Despite being deeply unpopular with the public, the media and the Opposition, the Nama legislation will be passed once support from the Green Party has been secured. Even a recent proposal from Dermot Desmond on how to deal with the problem of bad loans could not turn the Nama tanker around.
Progress is also being made on making the budget as palatable as possible. Taxation reform has been shelved and the public sector is being primed for a salary cut: better one big slice than a thousand slivers as recommended in the McCarthy report.
Voters though are often more emotional than rational in their preferences and the sympathy vote that came to the rescue of Bertie Ahern following the Bryan Dobson interview may once again have worked its magic for Fianna Fáil. Ryan Tubridy’s recent tough questioning of Brian Cowen appears to have stirred the female vote, among whom Fianna Fáil has gained seven points since the last poll.
Satisfaction with the Government’s performance and that of the Taoiseach are also up. Cowen’s appearance on the Late Late Show seems to have helped boost his own satisfaction rating, up eight points (to 23 per cent).
The downward trend in Government satisfaction has also been reversed. Its satisfaction rating now stands at 14 per cent, a gain of three points.
The Greens have been making their presence in Government felt, which likely underpins their one point increase in this latest poll.
There is currently a tension within the Green Party, created by the competing objectives of Nama and coalition. On the one hand, just 30 per cent of Green voters are in favour of Nama, yet a majority (74 per cent) would like to see the Green Party remain in government.
The party leadership is working hard to square this circle by wringing concessions from Fianna Fáil on key Green policy issues. Only after the special Green Party convention on October 10th will we know if enough progress has been made on the greening and cleaning of Government to persuade the grassroots to back Nama.
On the question of whether the Green Party should remain in Coalition, opinion is surprisingly divided, with 34 per cent of voters hoping the Greens decide to stay compared to 43 per cent who would like to see them leave.
Even a quarter of Labour and Fine Gael voters believe the Greens should stick with the Coalition and with Nama.
Fine Gael, down three points to 31 per cent today, remains the most popular party in Ireland, but has it missed an opportunity to reverse the downward trend of recent polls and reclaim their double-digit poll advantage?
Since the beginning of the year, the question of how to solve the banking crisis has been exercising the minds of the best and the brightest. Yet what would have been inconceivable only a year ago – a Fianna Fáil-led solution to buy bad developer loans from the banks at a premium – is now the only solution attracting serious consideration.
Fine Gael’s good bank-bad bank proposal is not seen to offer a credible alternative.
Labour’s call for social solidarity is wrapping a significant cohort of the electorate in a blanket of psychological comfort and is proving to be a powerful message in these times of great uncertainty.
With 25 per cent of the vote, Labour has recorded a new high and may even challenge Fine Gael if it stays on its current trajectory.
That said, translating these poll ratings into votes at election time by fielding credible candidates in every constituency will be a huge ask for Labour.
Remarkably, among Irelands elite class of professionals and senior managers (the ABs), Labour has supplanted Fine Gael as the party of choice.
These affluent voters have entirely different priorities to Labour’s traditional union base, which would leave Labour with difficult choices to make if it found itself in government any time soon.
In much the same way that voters are not using the Lisbon Treaty referendum to send a message to the Government (the Yes vote is down while at the same time Government support is up), a small increase in the No vote has not benefited Sinn Féin, which has fallen back marginally to 9 per cent (down one point).
Among younger, working-class voters, Sinn Féin is a potent force, but the party needs to broaden its appeal if significant electoral gains are to be achieved.
In the leadership satisfaction stakes, John Gormley scores higher (up three points to 22 per cent), but ranks lower. For the first time he is the least popular leader. Gerry Adams on 28 per cent is unchanged.
Somewhat unexpectedly, bearing in mind the trends in party support, satisfaction with Eamon Gilmore’s performance is down two points (to 45 per cent), whereas Enda Kenny is up three points (to 32 per cent).
Usually, party support and leader satisfaction move in the same direction, but in these tough economic times, when finance spokespeople monopolise the media, an occasional disconnect between party and leader performance is inevitable.
Perhaps Lisbon campaigning will place the party leaders back in the spotlight.