ACCELERATED CLIMATE change is a "threat multiplier" that poses a number of serious security challenges for the EU, a meeting in Dublin heard yesterday.
Speaking at the Dublin Institute for European Affairs, Dr Elina Bardram, policy co-ordinator at the European Commission's Directorate of External Relations, said the EU was focusing on "preventative" measures aimed at building a "consensus among the international community at the highest levels of the UN and elsewhere" to tackle these challenges.
Dr Bardram said the man-made phenomenon that was global warming would "test the EU's ability to lead, act and deliver with our international partners on the issue of climate change and security". She said such an approach - based on diplomacy, humanitarian and development initiatives rather than military options - represented the best defence of "the values of solidarity and human rights that are central to the European ideology".
The commission has identified a number of key areas or "clusters" of security concerns for the EU that have been "amplified" by projected climate change outcomes.
In terms of "direct implications" for Europe, it is predicted food prices will continue to rise sharply, with water scarcity reducing agricultural production worldwide.
It is predicted this set of circumstances will likely lead to continued food rioting in the urban centres of developing nations, accompanied by the threat of famine for the world's most vulnerable populations.
Dr Bardram said the prospect of food shortages, for the "poorest of the poor in the developing world" will probably be exacerbated by the demand for biofuel crops from industrialised nations.
The commission has accepted that hunger and the potential catastrophic infrastructural damage caused by rising sea levels in Africa, Asia and the Middle East may lead to forced mass migration, with potentially grave consequences for the EU.
An expected feature of such large population movements towards Europe would be the radicalisation of displaced peoples arising from marked disparities in their income and quality of life indicators.
Whilst it is likely that most EU member states would be able to cope with the damage to coastal cities such as Dublin and London caused by possible increases in sea levels, there are fears that global competition for shrinking fuel, water and food resources might lead to more unilateralism on the part of the world's superpowers, giving rise to more significant regional conflicts and further tensions that might threaten the rule of international law.
Dr Bardram said the EU is formally and actively engaged in the process of preparing and planning for the security implications of global warming. Unlike the US and other international stakeholders, the EU has not identified "hard power", or militarised solutions, as the best response to challenges posed by global warming.
Rather, it has identified "soft power" initiatives such as attempts to broker international agreements to reduce carbon emissions as the best way to combat such concerns.
