Visits to Belgrade by the Russian peace envoy, Mr Viktor Chernomyrdin, have become the stuff of war folklore. Some Serbs claim that every time "Mr Gazprom" (after the company he runs) flies in to bomb-smashed Surcin Airport, his jet delivers a cargo of new ground-to-air missiles for his "Slavic brothers".
Others dread the aftermath of Mr Chernomyrdin's departure. "Here in Belgrade we say, `Watch out, Chernomyrdin is coming!'," Mr Goran Matic, a minister without portfolio and close associate of President Slobodan Milosevic said yesterday. "Every time negotiations reach an important point, the bombing was intensified. This is not by chance . . . The US and Britain are absolutely trying to obstruct negotiations."
But when Mr Chernomyrdin arrives in Belgrade this morning, he will be accompanied by the EU envoy, President Martti Ahtisaari of Finland. For days, Belgrade commentators have said that Mr Ahtisaari would not come to Serbia until a peace agreement was close, and his visit has raised perhaps unrealistic hopes.
Only two days ago Mr Milosevic finally confirmed his willingness to accept the seven principles agreed by G8 (the world's seven richest nations plus Russia) foreign ministers in Bonn on May 6th. The G8 peace plan is very similar to NATO's five demands. Both NATO and the G8 list the immediate cessation of violence in Kosovo as their first condition. The second NATO demand, that all Serb military, police and paramilitary forces withdraw from Kosovo, is watered down in the G8 proposal, which mentions a withdrawal but does not specify all. The Serbs claim that because Kosovo is part of Serbia, they have a sovereign right to maintain at least token troops there.
The third condition of both proposals - the stationing of an international military "presence" (G8 term) or "force" (the term used by NATO) is the most difficult issue. The G8 specifies that the "presence" would be under the aegis of the UN. The Serbs have finally implied acceptance of an armed force, but still refuse to allow countries which have participated in the bombardment of Yugoslavia to send ground troops into Kosovo.
A more elaborate plan presented by Mr Chernomyrdin to Mr Milosevic last week pleases the Serbs but is unlikely to be acceptable to NATO. Under the Chernomyrdin plan the US, France, Britain and Germany, all of which have participated in the air strikes, would station ground troops in Albania and Macedonia to help refugees and hold back the Kosovo Liberation Army.
NATO countries Greece, Portugal, Italy and the Netherlands could station troops inside Kosovo along the borders with Albania and Macedonia. But the rest of Kosovo would be controlled by soldiers from neutral countries (perhaps including Ireland), Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States.
Other points of the G8 plan and NATO demands are virtually the same: the return of all refugees and free access for humanitarian aid workers and the establishment of a political process based on the Rambouillet accords. The G8 proposal contains two points not addressed by NATO: the setting up of a civil administration in Kosovo under UN auspices and provision for the economic development of the Balkans.
If an accord is reached, both Mr Milosevic and Western leaders will have to sell it to their people. The Yugoslav government has insisted for so long that it would never accept "foreign occupation" of Kosovo that many Serbs predict Mr Milosevic could be assassinated or overthrown if he gives in. The Yugoslav army announced that "while touring troops in the first line of defence" (Kosovo) Col Gen Ljubisa Velickovic, the second ranking officer in the air force, was killed yesterday.