In the 69-year history of the Academy Awards the record for the most nominations has remained unbroken since 1950 when the scintillating All About Eve received 14 nominations. History may well be made at 5.30 on Tuesday morning (1.30 p.m., Irish time) when the nominees for the 70th Academy Awards are announced in Beverly Hills, and the movie poised to break Oscar records is, of course, James Cameron's marvellous epic, Titanic.
In the promotional advertisements which have proliferated in the film trade papers over the past few months, the distributors of Titanic are pushing it in 17 categories: best picture, director, actor, actress, supporting actress, supporting actor, original screenplay, cinematography, film editing, art direction, costume design, sound, original score, original song, visual effects, make-up, and sound effects editing.
I expect Titanic to be nominated in at least 15 of those 17 categories, with Leonardo DiCaprio likely to win through in the fiercely competitive best actor category to give the film a recordbreaking 16 nominations. The one section in which Titanic does not stand a chance is best supporting actor where Billy Zane's pantomime cad is most unlikely to secure a place. None of this year's other Oscar contenders is likely to come close to Titanic in terms of nominations.
As ever, many of the Oscars adverts in the trade papers - all euphemistically headed "For Your Consideration" - are risible vanity exercises. Does anyone seriously believe that Irish actor Pierce Brosnan will be nominated as best actor for the lava drama, Dante's Peak? Or that Richard Gere or Brad Pitt stand a chance of getting into the same category for playing Provos in The Jackal and The Devil's Own, respectively? A much better bet for a nomination is Robin Williams's performance as an Irish-American therapist in Good Will Hunting.
However, Irish interest resides principally with Jim Sheridan's The Boxer, which opened in the US on New Year's Eve and went on Irish release yesterday. Sheridan has a remarkable track record in the Oscars. His first film, My Left Foot, collected five nominations, including best picture, and won Oscars for Daniel Day-Lewis as best actor and Brenda Fricker as best supporting actress. His second film, The Field, earned a single but important nomination for Richard Harris as best actor. And his third, In The Name Of The Father, earned seven nominations, including three for Sheridan himself (as producer, director, cowriter) and another best actor nod for Day-Lewis.
The Boxer picked up three nominations in the recent Golden Globes - best picture, director and actor - and while it stands a good chance in those categories for Oscar nominations, it will not be easy given the strength of the competition this year. While its prospects in the best picture and best director certainly cannot be ruled out, Day-Lewis looks like the movie's best bet in the major categories, with further nominations likely for cinematography (Chris Menges) and film editing (Gerry Hambling). Jim Sheridan and his co-writer, Terry George, could well find a place on the best original screenplay shortlist.
Ballots for the nominations closed on January 30th. There are 5,713 voting members in the Academy, and balloting for the nominations is restricted to the members of the Academy branch concerned - only directors vote for directors, and so on. The entire electorate votes on best picture and special committees drawn from all branches vote on the nominations for documentaries and foreign-language films.
This is how the principal contenders shape up in the six main categories. There are five nominations in each category.
Best picture
There are three certain nominations: Titanic, Curtis Hanson's L.A. Confidential (which swept the boards in the end-of-year US critics' awards), and Gus Van Sant's Good Will Hunting, featuring Matt Damon as a young South Boston janitor with a photographic memory and an extraordinary gift for solving the most complex mathematical problems.
After that it's anyone's guess. In addition to The Boxer the chief contenders are Steven Spielberg's slavery drama, Amistad; Barry Levinson's very topical satire, Wag The Dog, in which the US president is caught with a girl scout in the Oval Office; James L. Brooks's serious comedy, As Good As It Gets; Robert Duvall's personal project, The Apostle, which he wrote, produced, directed and starred in - and even financed; Mike Newell's Donnie Brasco, although it opened early last spring; Iain Softley's The Wings Of The Dove; Atom Egoyan's The Sweet Hereafter; Ang Lee's The Ice Storm; and maybe Peter Cattaneo's The Full Monty, an underdog whose out-of-the-blue success is much admired.
Prediction: Amistad, As Good As It Gets, Good Will Hunting, L.A. Confidential, Titanic
Best director
All of the best picture contenders will figure here again. Generally, however, at least one or two of the best picture nominees fail to get their directors nominated. The two certainties for places are James Cameron and Curtis Hanson, while James L. Brooks should take the third slot. Gus Van Sant looks safe for a place - a prospect that would have been unimaginable a few years ago. Perhaps Spielberg will be snubbed again, letting Robert Duvall, Jim Sheridan, or Atom Egoyan in. This is exceedingly tough to call.
Prediction: James L. Brooks, James Cameron, Robert Duvall, Curtis Hanson, Gus Van Sant
Best actor
Golden Globe winner Peter Fonda is a sure-shot for the lowbudget Ulee's Gold, in which he plays a reclusive Florida beekeeper. Fonda's father, Henry, won one Oscar, and his sister, Jane, won two; Peter's only previous nomination was in the best original screenplay category for Easy Rider way back in 1969.
Jack Nicholson, who is one of the five most nominated performers in Oscar history, is sure to get his 11th nod for As Good As It Gets, while the hot and ubiquitous Matt Damon will be in there for Good Will Hunting. Incidentally, young Damon should pull off a rare double by collecting a nomination for the Good Will Hunting original screenplay, which he wrote with Ben Affleck, who also plays his best friend in the movie.
Daniel Day-Lewis is a definite contender for The Boxer, but the competition is fierce, including Leonardo DiCaprio (Titanic), Robert Duvall (The Apostle), newcomer Djimon Hounson (Amistad), Dustin Hoffman (Wag The Dog), Samuel L. Jackson (Jackie Brown), Ian Holm (The Sweet Hereafter), Al Pacino (Donnie Brasco), Kevin Kline (In & Out), Robert Carlyle (The Full Monty) and Ralph Fiennes (Oscar & Lucinda).
Prediction: Matt Damon, Daniel Day-Lewis, Leonardo DiCaprio, Peter Fonda, Jack Nicholson
Best actress
Such was the paucity of good roles for American actresses in 1997 that it is conceivable, though unlikely, that British actresses could take all five places on the shortlist. Three, certainly, can be assured of places - Helena Bonham Carter (The Wings Of The Dove), Kate Winslet (Titanic), and Judi Dench (Mrs Brown), who won the Golden Globe last month. The other British contenders are Julie Christie (Afterglow), Emily Watson (The Boxer), and a longshot, Emma Thompson (The Winter Guest).
The prime US contenders are Helen Hunt from the TV series, Mad About You, who impressively seizes upon the opportunity to stretch her range in As Good As It Gets; blaxploitation queen Pam Grier for her comeback in the title role of Quentin Tarantino's Jackie Brown; and Joan Allen for The Ice Storm, although she may suffer from some confusion as to whether she should be in as best actress or supporting actress. American outsiders are Jessica Lange (A Thousand Acres), Jodie Foster (Contact), Julia Roberts (My Best Friend's Wedding), Jennifer Lopez (Selena), Jennifer Jason Leigh (Washington Square) and Joey Lauren Adams (Chasing Amy).
Prediction: Helena Bonham Carter, Judi Dench, Helen Hunt, Pam Grier, Kate Winslet.
Best supporting actress
The 87-year old Gloria Stuart, who makes a comeback in Titanic, is sure to be nominated, as is Golden Globe winner Kim Basinger (L.A. Confidential). Sigourney Weaver could well take a place for The Ice Storm, especially if her co-star Joan Allen ends up in the best actress category, while Anne Heche may find her vote split between her performances in Wag The Dog and Donnie Brasco. The other key contenders are Joan Cusack (In & Out), Julianne Moore (Boogie Nights), Sarah Polley (The Sweet Hereafter), Minnie Driver (Good Will Hunting), Judy Davis (Deconstructing Harry), Debbi Morgan (Eve's Bayou) and, possibly, Emma Thompson's mother and Winter Guest co-star Phyllida Law.
Prediction: Kim Basinger, Joan Cusack, Julianne Moore, Gloria Stuart, Sigourney Weaver
Best supporting actor
There's a wealth of competition to get a place on this shortlist. A sure-shot is Golden Globe winner Burt Reynolds for Boogie Nights. Ironically, Reynolds hated the movie so much when he saw it that he refused to do any publicity for it and he sacked his agent. The other certainty is Rupert Everett (My Best Friend's Wedding), while former chatshow host Greg Kinnear looks safe for As Good As It Gets, as does Robin Williams for Good Will Hunting.
That leaves all the following strong contenders for the final place: Brian Cox (The Boxer), Anthony Hopkins (Amistad), Morgan Freeman (Amistad), Greg Kinnear (As Good As It Gets), Robin Williams (Good Will Hunting), Jon Voight (The Rainmaker), Robert Forster (Jackie Brown) and no less than five from L.A. Confidential - Guy Pearce, Russell Crowe, Kevin Spacey, John Cromwell and Danny DeVito (L.A. Confidential). Forced to pick just one for that last place, I would venture with Guy Pearce, but it really is anybody's guess.
Prediction: Rupert Everett, Greg Kinnear, Guy Pearce, Burt Reynolds, Robin Williams