CAO points for most courses will be broadly similar to last year, writes Seán Flynn
First the good news: it seems likely that most Leaving Cert students - those looking for about 300 CAO points - will be happy with the results.
The numbers gaining honours at higher level is impressive. Broadly, about three quarters of all students in many of the most popular subjects secure an honour.
The problems with this year's Leaving come if you're struggling with ordinary level maths and science subjects - or if you are among the high flyers needing 550 points-plus for entry to élite courses in medicine and related areas.
The situation in ordinary level maths and science subjects is worrying. Overall, about one-in-10 students failed maths when the results at higher, ordinary and foundation level are combined.
Thousands of students are struggling with ordinary level maths, which is taken by over 70 per cent of students. This year, about 2,500 students who registered to take ordinary level decided at the last minute to take foundation level. But foundation level is not accepted by many third level colleges.
The results at ordinary level will do little to boost confidence. Some 12 per cent failed the paper. All told, the high failure rate in maths means that several thousand students could now find themselves ineligible for many third-level courses, where a pass or a Grade C3 at ordinary level is a requirement.
The Department of Education is reviewing ordinary level maths which is seen by many experts as old-fashioned and far too difficult, but this is of little consolation to those who may now be forced to repeat the subject.
What of the high flyers? Again, the news is not hugely encouraging. The total number of students gaining five A1s is down significantly, from 380-plus to 330-plus. This might seem insignificant but it is of real importance to those chasing much coveted places in medicine and related areas.
It is ludicrous- but five A1s and 500 points-plus are the minimum you need if you hope to gain entry to the likes of medicine, dentistry, veterinary and pharmacy.
Last week, this newspaper reported how first-time Leaving Certs were being squeezed out of these courses by repeat Leaving Certs and A level students from Northern Ireland and Britain.
Some 12,000 Leaving Certs listed these courses among their CAO preferences last year. In all there were 823 places but only 516 were actually made available to Leaving Cert as the rest went to repeat students and those from the North and the UK.
This year, the lower number of high-flyers in the Leaving Cert results could make it "easier" for A-level students to secure those places. Last night, The Irish Times' careers expert, Brian Mooney, predicted that the Class of 2005 could find it even more difficult to gain places in these courses. The first round of CAO offers is due on Monday.
Otherwise, the CAO points requirements for most students are likely to remain broadly similar to last year. Yes, some courses will rise or fall dramatically in terms of points. But most general arts, business or social studies courses will be broadly similar to last year - especially in the universities and the leading institutes of technology.
Have a look at last year's points published in this supplement. Generally, the points needed will not change by more than five or 10 points for most courses.
Some other interesting trends emerged from this year's results. If you want a sure-fire A grade - take Russian. Some 90 per cent of those who took the subject secured the highest grade and 90-100 CAO points.
In its first year, religious studies proved to be popular and relatively easy. Not one student failed the subject, and the honours rate at 94 per cent is the third highest in the Leaving Cert. The subject was taken on a pilot basis by less than a hundred students this year. But with their results valid for CAO points, expect more students to line up for it - if their school is one of those offering the course. Otherwise, it could be tricky to take the subject, as the coursework element needs to be validated by a school.
A less encouraging element of this year's results was the high failure rate in ordinary level history. Some 14 per cent failed the paper, twice the number failing geography. The subject has been struggling to attract students in recent years. A new more modern, less bookish course will be introduced in September.