South Belfast, a constituency running from the affluent Malone Road through staunchly loyalist areas to republican enclaves such as the Markets and lower Ormeau Road, will field an array of candidates reflecting the full spectrum of political life in Northern Ireland. Among them is an anti-agreement Ulster Unionist, which will make this constituency a complicated one for the unionist electorate.
It is a strong Ulster Unionist area, and the party should take two of the six Assembly seats. At the election for the Northern Ireland Forum in 1996, the UUP won two of the five seats, and Martin Smyth was returned as MP in the Westminster elections last May. He secured some 36 per cent of the vote, in the absence of a DUP candidate.
Mr Smyth spoke out strongly against the Belfast Agreement, yet tallies indicated that some 80 per cent of the electorate in South Belfast voted Yes in the referendum. Jim Clarke, a Belfast councillor and former Forum member who opposed the agreement, was among three candidates selected at a meeting of the UUP constituency association on Thursday night. He campaigned for a No vote with the "United Unionists" and signed a pledge against the agreement with the Rev Ian Paisley and Mr Bob McCartney.
He now says he is running on a united ticket with his two party colleagues, Mr Michael McGimpsey and Dr Esmond Birnie, but appears unrepentant. "A lot of people are telling me they are sorry they voted Yes. They are starting to have second thoughts," he says.
Mr Clarke says he always supported the party policy of staying in the talks and he takes the same view of the Assembly. He accepts the democratic will of the majority. "David [Trimble] has told us a lot of things. He has said that cross-Border bodies will not have executive powers. I am accepting what he has said at the moment. But time will tell if it is true or not."
It will be a very uncomfortable campaign for the UUP in constituencies where anti-agreement candidates are standing. Members who supported David Trimble are unhappy at the thought of transfers going to people who sided with the DUP, but they cannot say so publicly. They point out that in effect they are asking supporters to contradict themselves by giving their second and third preferences to anti-agreement candidates.
Mr Clarke will benefit from DUP transfers ahead of his two running mates. Dr Birnie, an economist at Queen's University, is a former member of the Conservative Party and is not well known in the constituency.
Known in the South for challenging the constitutionality of the Anglo-Irish Agreement in the Supreme Court, Michael McGimpsey says the high turnout at the referendum must be repeated. "If the Yes voters don't come back out again, it would be the same as voting No in the referendum."
The SDLP also has a good chance of getting two seats. Dr Alasdair McDonnell says he is confident of both himself and party colleague, Carmel Hanna, getting elected. In the Westminster election, he got 24 per cent of the vote, and he believes this has now risen to 28 per cent, after learning from mistakes in the past. "We have done our homework and we know our vote is on the rise."
Sinn Fein's Sean Hayes got 5 per cent of the vote on that occasion, and it will be interesting to see if nationalist voters in this predominantly middle-class constituency will follow a trend across the North in showing a greater willingness to vote for the party. The profile of the electorate in South Belfast has changed over the years as the better-off moved out of the city altogether. This could impact on the Alliance vote, which has traditionally had a strong support base.
Mr Steve McBride of Alliance received just under 13 per cent of the vote in last May's Westminster election, which is very close to the 13.4 per cent needed to get a seat in the Assembly. However, there is the possibility that his vote may be squeezed by Ms Monica McWilliams.
Ms McWilliams has quite a task to perform to increase the Women's Coalition vote from the 3 per cent of a party colleague last May. Helped by her high profile during the talks, she may appeal to non-traditional voters, but unionists say she is unlikely to get their transfers. This is the first election she has contested.
The DUP did not stand last May but got 15 per cent of the vote in the Forum election. The two candidates are councillors in Castlereagh, but are not high-profile. However, the 20 per cent No vote in the referendum would indicate there is enough support for at least one anti-agreement candidate, but a significant proportion of this may go to Jim Clarke.
Two loyalists are also in the field. The PUP candidate, Ernie Purvis, is unlikely to poll as well as his party colleague David Ervine's 5,700 votes in the Westminster election. The UDP locally is not as strong as the PUP, and despite David Adams's high profile since the Forum elections when the party polled 4.4 per cent, it would be a major surprise if he got elected.
There are a number of unknown factors. Attitudes may have changed after the referendum and people could shift from traditional choices.