IT is said that oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them. Things could be, reversed next week because Fianna Fail has at least in Dublin West, and the Governments, all three of them, were never really expecting to take either seat.
FF leader Bertie Ahern called the two by-elections early and the party is favourite for both. Word from Dublin West, however, is that no candidate has yet broken out of the leading pack - Brian Lenihan, Tomas MacGiolla and Jim Higgins. Even FF, desperate for transfers, admits Lenihan may not make it. Should he fail the consequences for Bertie are serious, particularly in the run-up to a general election.
The last three by-elections - Wicklow and two in Cork - were not FF seats; Dublin West is. Also he has a good candidate with a known name.
Should FF lose to Harry Blaney in Donegal the fall-out is far less severe - the seat was Neil, Blaney's, Harry would vote with FF anyway and, everyone believes, the seat will come back to FF eventually.
A high vote for former Labour Party member Jim Higgins in Dublin West would not only embarrass Dick Spring but could cause much rancour over water rates among backbench deputies. Remember the Northside Four! Both FG and the PDs did badly here last time out so Tom Morrissey, a well-known local councillor, and, Sheila Terry, the only woman in the race, must improve their performances. DL is not running in either constituency, but should MacGiolla win in Dublin the party had better beware. He warned on 98FM the other night that he had unfinished business in Leinster House and old scores to settle.