MANCHESTER LETTER:ROY JENKINS, speaking after British voters had voted by two-to-one in 1975 to stay in the European Economic Community, said the result '' had put uncertainty behind us'', and that the UK would ''now play an enthusiastic, committed role'', writes
MARK HENNESSY
Margaret Thatcher voted Yes and, indeed, claimed later that the referendum would not have happened, and would not have been won except for the Conservatives’ help, given the divisions within the Labour Party.
Listening to a mostly Eurosceptic gathering on the margins of the Conservatives’ conference in Manchester early yesterday, it was clear that the uncertainty remains, even if the dislike of all things Europe was palpable.
The uncertainty surrounding the UK’s future intentions and attitudes will only grow if Conservative leader David Cameron replaces Labour’s Gordon Brown as prime minister next year.
Cameron quaffed a glass of champagne in Manchester’s plush Midland Hotel on Tuesday night – contrary to his own diktat to party members to stay away from the bubbly so as not to be seen as taking election victory for granted.
It has been one of the few self-inflicted injuries of the week, and hardly matters. So far, his supporters, in the main, have heeded his other order: not to spend the week obsessing about the UK’s attitude to the European Union.
Sure, the colourful mayor of London, Boris Johnson, sent a volley or two early on demanding a referendum on Lisbon, while Eurosceptic MEP Daniel Hannan has continued his guerrilla war against all of Brussels’s works and pomps.
On the other side, former chancellor of the exchequer Kenneth Clarke, a long-standing Euro-enthusiast, hinted strongly that he might campaign for a Yes vote if a referendum is eventually held.
Both Clarke and Johnson were quickly brought to heel, and required to issue ‘‘clarifying’’ statements saying that they supported Cameron’s position that he would have a referendum if Lisbon has not come into effect by the time of the next election, and if he wins.
But the Conservative leader has merely bought time. Soon, he will be forced into a position where he will have to go further and make it clear whether he will be the one to block it, rather than seeking to take advantage from delays elsewhere.
The Poles look set to finish ratification of Lisbon quickly, while even the arch-Eurosceptic Czech president, Václav Klaus, is giving the Conservatives little hope of believing that he will keep his spanner in the works for much longer. Clearly, the majority of the Conservatives – both elected and unelected – regard Lisbon as unacceptable, and, indeed, they are no more enthusiastic about the UK’s membership of the European Union.
Besides genuine issues about threats to its national interest – such as current EU financial regulation plans which could hurt the City of London – the key problems are ones of confidence and trust. And there is little of either around.
Ironically, the EU’s current make-up – the focus that there has been on enlargement, markets, economics and the like — is far more in the UK’s image than those who favour a more federal Europe would wish.
If Cameron is elected, and fails to deliver a referendum, then he faces a repeat of the internal wars over Europe that convulsed the Tories under Margaret Thatcher, and destroyed John Major’s premiership.
If, on the other hand, he does put it before the country — and if Lisbon is rejected — then he risks seeing his premiership consumed by Europe at a time when the UK is facing some of the toughest challenges in decades.
In truth, the Conservatives are indulging in the politics of opposition, which is entirely understandable given British public opinion, but which will be hard to deliver upon should he take over from Gordon Brown.
For years, the British public has been among the most wary of the EU, though, curiously, Britons have tended not to rate it as a priority when they have actually decided upon their MP.
The situation was considerably different, however, last June in the European Parliament elections, when the United Kingdom Independence Party won 13 seats, outscoring the Labour Party.
While an impressive result in terms of seats won, UKIP’s vote share was only up marginally on its 2004 European result – a figure that was not repeated in the following year’s Commons elections when it got just 2.2 per cent of the vote.
Tony Blair promised the British people a referendum on the European constitution, but binned the idea after the French and Dutch voted it down. And he avoided putting Lisbon to a public vote. Instead, it was ratified by the Houses of Parliament.
Now, Cameron must decide whether he will unravel Britain’s own legal procedures, even before he moves on to tackle Brussels.
So far, Cameron and other senior Tories have thrown some shiny baubles in front of supporters, talking tough about winning back powers from the EU over social and employment laws, even though the UK is already exempted from many.
However, the distractions will not divert attentions indefinitely, particularly if Blair is offered the job of president of the European Council by EU leaders at one of their summits in coming months.