Bush signals his intent to crush the Iraqi regime

Coalition forces have made rapid advances - securing their hold in southern Iraq, speeding towards Baghdad and launching "shock…

Coalition forces have made rapid advances - securing their hold in southern Iraq, speeding towards Baghdad and launching "shock and awe" bombing. Tom Clonan explains the tactics

As we enter Day 3 of the invasion of Iraq, the "shock and awe" potential of US air power has finally been demonstrated to the Baghdad regime. In a devastating series of missile, B52 and B1 bomber attacks, the Bush administration has signalled its intent to crush the Iraqi regime. Concurrent with this action the ground war has developed at a rapid pace.

Denied the use of Turkish territory for a ground invasion from the north, the US and British have executed a bold armoured advance into Iraq along a relatively narrow and extended thrust from the Kuwaiti border. On the left flank of this thrust is the US 3rd Infantry Division (Mechanised). The 3rd Division has made rapid progress through the uninhabited western desert towards the outskirts of Baghdad.

Having covered hundreds of kilometres in a very short time, however, its axis of advance lacks depth and is logistically vulnerable. This was highlighted yesterday at Nasiriyah when the advance was temporarily halted by relatively light resistance. To help overcome such difficulties the advance is in the process of being secured and reinforced by the activities of US and British troops on its right flank.

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These troops, consisting of elements of the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force and the UK first Armoured Division have fanned out and moved north-east of their start lines in Kuwait. They are being supported by British troops of the 3rd Brigade, Royal Marine Commandos, the Parachute Regiment and the UK 7th Armoured Brigade. This mixture of British and US units has captured the Al Faw Peninsula along with the vital port installation of Umm Qasr. They are also consolidating the seizure of the operational airfields at Safwan and Shuaiba and the strategically important town of Basra.

The purpose of these seizures is to secure the head of the Persian Gulf for the docking and unloading of allied vessels onto Iraqi soil. This will allow for the immediate deployment of Task Force Iron Horse or the US 4th Infantry Division (Mechanised) in support of the armoured thrust towards Baghdad.

In the original invasion plan, this division was earmarked to move on Baghdad via an overland route through Turkey. Forbidden entry into Turkey, Task Force Iron Horse has had to sail from the eastern Mediterranean via the Suez to the Persian Gulf in order to disembark in southern Iraq. Once on land, this powerful force will immediately move north to consolidate the advance the US 3rd Infantry Division rapidly approaching the suburbs of Baghdad.

In addition to this left and right flanking thrust from the south, Baghdad is now also in the process of being ringed from the north and west by leading elements of the US 101st and 82nd Airborne Divisions.

Following a series of air strikes around Kirkuk, Mosul and Tikrit, US and British Special Forces have been engaged in the task of securing vital airbases to facilitate the deployment of these airborne troops. These will include installations along the Jordanian border, such as the Ruwayshid, Tabaat and Walid airbases.

Their seizure will also be followed by more strategically important runways close to Baghdad, such as Qayara and Bushayriyah to the north, and Bakr, Qadisiyah and Karbala to the west and south of the capital.

Once secured, the 101st and 82nd Airborne Divisions will be in a position to fly in heavier equipment, including armoured fighting vehicles and artillery. With this deployment under way, the overall plan would be for the armoured advance to link up with the airborne elements. This would see the complete envelopment of Baghdad by allied forces.

The current ground advance allied with the "shock and awe" air campaign now well under way represents the final phase of the invasion of Iraq. With Baghdad all but surrounded, US and British commanders would be in a position to consider their tactical options in support of their overall strategic objective - regime change.

Reported attempts to negotiate with the city's defenders will continue to be accompanied by heavy bombing and a Psyops campaign aimed at precipitating internal collapse and surrender. This negotiation phase will be brief and if the remnants of Saddam's regime continue to resist, a brutal urban battle may ensue.

This is a prospect that US and British troops have been preparing for over a period of some months now. The US and British public, through a series of carefully worded statements by George Bush and Tony Blair, are now being prepared for such a prospect.

At the outset of the air campaign, Bush warned the US public to be ready for a war that might take some considerable time to prosecute. Blair yesterday warned the British public that UK troops would face resistance in Iraq. Blair's statement was especially significant in that it came only hours after Royal Marine Commando units first engaged the Iraqis in ground combat.

In the first after-action reports filed following fighting on the Al Faw Peninsula, there was an ominous suggestion that Saddam's troops would be prepared to fight for Iraq.

With this willingness to fight in mind, US and British military commanders will have been carefully planning their attack on the defenders of Baghdad. Chief among their concerns would be both conventional and non-conventional weapons. In a last-ditch defence scenario, the conventional weapons posing the greatest threat to allied forces in Baghdad would be the 400 or so T72 tanks believed held by the Republican Guard and Special Republican Guard. Despite their age, these Soviet-designed tanks are tough, durable and are equipped with a V-12 multi piston air-cooled engine capable of running on diesel, petrol or kerosene. Their main armament consists of a 125mm smoothbore gun able to defeat US armour at close ranges up to 1000 metres. These tanks, if the Iraqi leadership were to continue to resist, would pose a significant threat to advancing US Abrams and UK Challenger tanks.

The non-conventional threat would be a more sinister one. With up to 350 tonnes of chemical warfare agent, including 1.5 tonnes of VX gas still unaccounted for, there would be a genuine fear on the part of allied commanders that Saddam's inner circle might use nerve agents in a last-ditch, suicidal defence of Baghdad. Dispersed among houses with basements and narrow alleyways, these agents would be persistent and highly dangerous to advancing troops and sheltering civilians alike.

In such a scenario, it is the civilian population that would suffer most at the hands of a regime hell-bent on martyrdom. To this end, the allies have been engaged in an unprecedented programme of aerial bombardment, psychological operations and propaganda designed to dissuade the current Iraqi elite from the path of resistance.

Dr Tom Clonan is a retired Army officer with experience in the Middle East and former Yugoslavia. He currently lectures in the School of Media, DIT