IRAN: US pressure on Iran over its nuclear programme is reinforcing hardliners rather than encouraging reformers, Ramita Navai reports from Tehran
Since President Bush's axis-of-evil speech in February 2002, Washington hawks have been vocal about the issue of Iran, culminating in charges last week that American special forces are covertly operating in the country and Condoleezza Rice's public commitment to get tough on its nuclear programme, which the US says is a cover for developing the bomb.
British Foreign Secretary Mr Jack Straw was dispatched to Washington, producing a substantial dossier arguing a peaceful solution led by Britain, France and Germany "in the best interests of Iran and the international community". After talks with Dr Rice, he said the issue of the "military option" in Iran had not been raised although his comments came days after Vice President Dick Cheney said Iran tops the US list of "trouble spots".
The escalating threats emanating from Washington have been greeted with a mix of defiance, scorn and even indifference. Iran's reformist Foreign Minister Mr Kamal Kharrazi said this was psychological warfare used by Washington against the Islamic Republic.
"We know the enemy and his plans, but we will go on with our policies and although we do not wish to get into conflict with anyone, we will strongly defend our national interests," he said.
Few Iranians believe the tirade of words from Washington will be a precursor to real action.
"We're used to these threats, they're nothing new," was the nonchalant answer of Ali Agha Mohammadi, the head of the Propaganda Committee of the Supreme National Security Council and the deputy head of Iranian state media, IRIB.
An influential figure in Iranian politics and an adviser to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, Mr Mohammadi believes Ms Rice is asserting herself in her new role as Secretary of State and that rather than firing a warning shot to Iran, she is sending a message urging caution to its "rival", Europe.
Tehran views the revelations in the New Yorker magazine by Seymour Hersh that American Special Forces are working in Iran as proof of splits within Washington. Echoing a sentiment reflected by the Iranian media, Mr Mohammadi said: "These threats reflect the divisions between the CIA and the Pentagon. Every now and then, the CIA leaks information to the New Yorker for propaganda purposes, we saw it with Abu Ghraib and with Vietnam."
US pressure has most strongly focused on Iran's nuclear programme, with diplomatic efforts to bring new and wider sanctions against Tehran and dark hints that nuclear facilities could be bombed. But analysts say that American pressure on Iran to adopt more west-friendly policies could backfire, leading to a strengthening of Iranian hardliners and pushing them towards an isolationist approach.
Many ordinary Iranians, who in the past were open to the prospect of military intervention designed to install Western-style democracy, are starting to turn - America's threats have proved a cohesive force unifying liberal reformists, students and hardliners alike against what they see as American hypocrisy.
"Why can Israel, Pakistan and India have nuclear weapons but not Iran?" said a student leader who took part in the violent student riots in 1997.
"Iranians see the mess America has made in Iraq. And memories are still fresh from the Iran-Iraq war when Islamic sentiments were fanned to keep the country united against the foreign enemy - if America invades Iran, the same could happen again, with hardliners taking everything in their hands, uniting the country around anti-US sentiment," he added.
Since last February's parliamentary elections, when hardliners won a sweeping victory after thousands of reformist candidates were barred, hardliners have been much more vocal in government, increasing their presence in key positions.
Most important of all, the heightened confrontation is coming at a very sensitive moment in Iranian domestic politics. Candidates are starting to shape up for presidential elections in the summer. Former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who is seen as both moderate on domestic issues and favouring broader relations with Europe and the United States, is expected to run and is now seen as the favourite.
The effects of greater western pressure on his candidacy are difficult to predict but renewed pressure from the West could energise the conservatives' core political support base, making room for an extremist to emerge.