Bush involvement could break Middle East deadlock

US President George W Bush appears to have squared the circle in Middle East diplomacy, possibly breaking a deadlock that has…

US President George W Bush appears to have squared the circle in Middle East diplomacy, possibly breaking a deadlock that has lasted nearly 3 years, analysts said today.

Whether he manages to build on that initial achievement depends on his personal commitment to keep leaning on the Israelis and Palestinians, and whether initial steps by the two sides restore some of the lost confidence, they added.

The United States promised to "address Israel's significant concerns" during implementation of an internationally backed peace plan known as the road map.

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who for the past three weeks has declined to approve the plan, responded by saying he would now ask his cabinet for a formal endorsement.

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The Bush administration, which spent months drafting the peace plan in conjunction with the European Union, Russia and the United Nations, could not make changes to suit Israel without provoking an international uproar.

Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas, better known as Abu Mazen, said he could not take the security measures that Israel demands until he had assurances that the Israelis would accept the road map and make reciprocal gestures.

"The administration was able to win Israeli approval and address Israeli concerns without changing the road map. That strikes me as an artful fudge," said Mr Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

"The administration was trying to find a formula that would square the circle between Abu Mazen's position ... and Sharon basically not wanting to accept the road map," said Mr Edward Abington, a former diplomat who advises the Palestinians.

The formula it came up with was a two-sentence statement released today in the names of Secretary of State Colin Powell and national security adviser Condoleezza Rice. "The United States shares the view of the government of Israel that these are real concerns, and will address them fully and seriously in the implementation of the road map," said the operative part of the statement.

Mr Stephen Cohen, an analyst and national scholar for Israel Policy Forum, likened the Bush administration's approach to that of a parent trying to load children for a road trip.

"You promise them all kinds of things before, but the whole thing is to get them in the car because once they're in the car they don't have any choice," he said.

Mr Alterman said the formula might put off disputes over contentious issues but the Bush administration expected that success in the early phases would make it easier to overcome those disputes when their time comes.

The road map requires Israel to dismantle settler outposts in the West Bank and freeze building work at Jewish settlements in Palestinian territory, for example, steps which far-right members of Sharon's cabinet strongly oppose.

"We have no positive momentum now. If you can create some, other things become possible. Hopefully you will be dealing with a better climate, a more hopeful environment," he said.

Diplomats and analysts say that what has changed in the last few days and weeks is the level of attention Bush appears willing to devote to Middle East peacemaking.

"I think Bush is serious about moving ahead. There is a degree of commitment that we have not seen in the two-and-a-half years that he has been in office," said Mr Abington.

"My feeling is for the first time Bush is really pushing very hard and maybe we can see a break in the deadlock. That's what it looks like," he added. "There's a very broad expectation that Bush is on the verge of becoming much more personally involved," said Mr Alterman.

US engagement is exactly what the Palestinians and their Arab allies have been seeking throughout the Bush administration, previously with little apparent effect.