Mr John Bruton's opponents appeared to have a marginal edge late last night in the most tightly fought political leadership battle in modern memory. A handful of votes will this evening determine whether Mr Bruton continues to lead Fine Gael.
Throughout yesterday the voting strengths of each camp appeared evenly balanced, with the party split down the middle on the motion of no confidence.
Each side now seems likely to have a minimum of 30 votes at the 72-member parliamentary party meeting this afternoon, with a small number of crucial votes still undecided.
The meeting, which begins at 2.30 p.m., is expected to last for at least five hours and could continue late into the night. There is no limit on the numbers who can speak or on the time of each speech.
Mr Bruton, Mr Michael Noonan and Mr Jim Mitchell all claimed last night they would win. The Irish Times has confirmed that at least 30 people have committed themselves publicly or privately to the no-confidence motion, tabled by Mr Noonan and Mr Mitchell. A further 27 have committed themselves to supporting Mr Bruton, while the intentions of 16 could not be ascertained with confidence.
Meanwhile, there are strong indications that, should Mr Bruton be defeated, Mr Noonan would be favoured over Mr Mitchell to be the next leader. Mr Mitchell insisted yesterday he would still contest any vacancy, and "offer the party a choice between us". However, "if it became clear that one candidate was clearly going to win" they would have to take that into account.
There were also predictions that another candidate, supported by many within the Bruton camp, will emerge if Mr Bruton loses. While Mr Ivan Yates continues to rule himself out, the names of Mr Enda Kenny, Mr Jim Higgins and even Mr Jim Mitchell's brother, Gay, have been mentioned by some deputies as possibilities.
Those on the front bench declared against Mr Bruton are: Mr Noonan, Mr Mitchell, Mr Alan Shatter, Mr Michael Finucane and Ms Deirdre Clune, with the intentions of Mr Jim Higgins, Ms Avril Doyle and Mr Paul Connaughton unknown. The other 13 frontbench members are expected to support the leader.
With 37 votes needed to win, it was clear last night that neither side feels certain of victory. Despite public claims of confidence, sources in both camps privately warned of "false positives". By late last night supporters on both sides scaled back earlier predictions of having over 40 supporters.
Written off at the weekend by his opponents and even by some of his supporters, Mr Bruton's fight back has taken those on both sides by surprise. However, Mr Noonan said he believed the vote had "settled down" and he remained confident of victory.
The national executive of Young Fine Gael voted by 5 to 4 on Monday to express support for the no-confidence motion.
Coverage of the Fine Gael no confidence vote will continue throughout today on the breaking news section of the Irish Times website, www.ireland.com