Bringing women back to work to be measure of McCreevy success

Budget 2000 was undoubtedly aimed at bringing married women back to the labour force.

Budget 2000 was undoubtedly aimed at bringing married women back to the labour force.

In a more radical and possibly more socially divisive way than most had imagined the Minister for Finance has come up with a method to target increased labour supply.

The National Development Plan and the next partnership agreement will, to a great extent, shape the future of the economy over the next number of years, but labour shortages and congestion threaten to throw these strategies off course.

Some of the main problems facing the economy are the bottlenecks which are building up. Transport and infrastructure are to be dealt with by the National Plan and the other key variable is, of course, labour supply. A shortage of people to fill jobs on offer is a key issue facing employers and the economy. The obvious ways to increase the numbers entering the jobs market are to attract more married women back to work or to allow more immigrants to take up employment.

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As a result, Mr McCreevy made it one of his priorities to devise with a method that would encourage married women back to the labour force. The issue of allowing more immigrants to work is being looked at by the Minister for Justice, Mr O'Donoghue. There can be no doubt that the individualisation of tax bands will encourage women to return to work.

In the 2000/2001 tax year, if a married person is earning £28,000 (€35,553) their spouse will be able to go to work and earn an additional £6,000, before paying any tax at the higher rate.

In three years, a couple with both partners working will be able to earn £56,000 at the standard rate, whether or not they have children, before becoming liable to the higher rate. A couple with one spouse working will still only be able to earn £28,000 at the standard rate, no matter how many children they have.

Will the new strategy work? According to Mr Jim O'Leary, chief economist at Davy Stockbrokers, it may not have a major impact. According to recent figures, the number of women working under the age of 30 is already above the EU average and even the numbers under 40 are already at the average level, if adjusted for education.

As a result the core constituency which the Minister is targeting is the 40- to 60-year-old woman. That could also be the reason why childcare was so obviously lacking. However, tax breaks alone may not be enough to encourage women of this age to return to work.

Many, particularly those over 50, feel they have lost the skills required. Therefore a substantial retraining and upskilling package for these women must also be put in place, if the taxation measures are to work.

Others disagree. According to Mr Colin Hunt, chief economist at Goodbody Stockbrokers, the package should mean that Ireland will end up with one of the highest participation rates of women in the EU. The statistics cover economies such as Italy where female participation is low.

From an economic point of view, the success of this Budget will depend to a large extent on how successful it is in encouraging women back to work.

However, the Budget was also framed with one eye on the national partnership negotiations and, probably much to the Minister's relief and to the surprise of others, the ICTU welcomed the package, as did IBEC.

But whether the Budget will actually make a difference to the talks is less clear. After all, in an economy with labour shortages, there is less room for tax cuts in exchange for wage rises. The most likely outcome is that despite the tax cuts, significant wage rises will be demanded.

In addition, there is no doubt that the Budget is extremely expansionary in an already overheating economy. Whether or not this particularly matters is up for debate.

Certainly a tax package of over £900 million will give a considerable boost to household disposable income. According to Mr O'Leary, the boost to income is 3.5 per cent which is "off the graph" compared with previous years. The fact that all dual income households in the State earning over £35,000 will have a boost to take-home pay of over £2,000 is likely to add to the import of luxury items, at least at the margin.

But overall depreciation in the euro's value would have far more serious consequences for inflation. As Mr O'Leary said, it is probably better to have inflation running at 2.5 per cent and a tax package of £400 million than 3.5 per cent with a tax package of £900 million, particularly if inflation in other states is only 1.5 per cent.

At the end of the day the additional boost to an already booming economy may not be huge and, if it does result in large numbers of women returning to work, the Minister will have achieved his objective.