`I'd like to go to New York tomorrow, for three or four days. Any last-minute deals?" I ask the helpful woman at Atlas Travel in Dublin. "No - in a word," she apologises, even before tapping my details into her computer. A few minutes later she has the bad news. "There are no seats left in economy class on Aer Lingus going out to JFK tomorrow so it would have to be a business-class fare. That fare then is going to be £2,890 plus £45 tax, bringing that to a total of £2,935. That's direct so you might get it a bit cheaper if you go through somewhere else, but not much."
A last-minute hop to Paris for three nights, on Aer Lingus again, is going to be £263.93 including tax. Even Ryanair, which tends to trumpet a lot about fares of £50 and less, is looking for £150.24, including tax, to get me to Beauvais, just outside Paris. And then the coach into Paris will add about £12 to that. Flying Air France to Charles de Gaulle airport would set me back £583.92. Perhaps a few days in London? British Midland could fly me over to Heathrow at a day's notice for £133.54, while Ryanair will take me to Stansted for £98.05. However, again there's the train fare into Liverpool Street station, of about £14, to consider.
Word has it that we are all travelling a lot more. According to the Irish Travel Agents Association (ITAA), there was a 17 per cent increase in the number of summer sun holidays taken between 1998 and 1999 - rising from 549,000 to 641,000. Taking last year's trend as an indicator, a "forecast of 700,000 summer sun holidays for the year 2000 is realistic," they say. Winter sun and ski holidays increased last year, as did the number of business trips, according to industry sources.
These statistics are generally put down to falling air fares combined with more money in our pockets. It would seem we island folk are overcoming our peripherality.
So is there really such a thing as the "last-minute deal"? Certainly the big travel agents are pushing what one of them is calling "sizzling summer deals". Falcon Holidays, for example, is offering a flight-only to Malaga for £179 return ex Dublin, Cork or Shannon, for two weeks on August 25th while Joe Walsh Tours has a two-week holiday in Bali or Thailand, in a three or four star hotel on a B&B basis, for £800 per person.
However, though Mr John Spollen, manager of John Cassidy Travel in Dublin, says people can save up to £60 if they leave booking until the last minute, they might in fact fare a lot better if they book as long as a year or more in advance.
"We've already got bookings coming in for summer 2001," he says. "We've put those bookings to bed and it means people have been able to get the property they wanted in the destination they wanted at exactly the time they wanted, and they've got their free child place . . . Certainly, this year there is very little left."
As to whether there is real competition between airlines, Mr Brendan Moran, chief executive of the ITAA, is in no doubt that competition has slashed fares over the past decade and a half, particularly on the Dublin-London route.
"Twelve years ago there was one route between the capitals - Dublin to Heathrow and it was controlled by two airlines, Aer Lingus and British Airways. It was one of the most expensive routes, mile for mile, in the world. Today you have five airports around London, served by about seven airlines."
However, he is concerned that competition may be vulnerable to the evolution of airline alliances such as the Oneworld Alliance, which shelters eight airlines, including British Airways, American Airlines and Quantas, under its corporate umbrella.
The big tour operators such as Budget, Falcon and JWT cut deals with charter airlines, block-booking the flights. The difficulty in this sector is primarily for these operators, he explains, because with so many aircraft in the air they are difficult to get. This and escalating fuel prices have pushed costs up dramatically
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