BRITAIN: Mr Tony Blair has predicted that British public opinion will rally behind war with Iraq if President Saddam Hussein is found in breach of the United Nations resolution on disarmament.
With the latest poll finding a clear majority of Britons unconvinced that the Iraqi leader represents sufficient threat to justify war - and in face of renewed reports of a possible cabinet revolt - the Prime Minister again insisted that if Iraq was in breach the UN must be prepared to strip the Iraqi regime of its weapons of mass destruction in order to uphold its own authority.
At the same time Mr Blair again confirmed that Britain and America would not be "confined" by the absence of a second, specific UN resolution approving military action.
That was a direct rebuke for the International Development Secretary, Ms Clare Short - currently considered the cabinet's most likely rebel - who suggested on Sunday that Britain could block any unilateral action by the US and would stick firmly to "the UN route".
Ms Short's latest public rehearsal of her worries about the developing situation coincided with reports that at least three Blair loyalists inside the cabinet have warned the Prime Minister that he faces a growing Labour rebellion at Westminster and has not done enough to prepare public opinion for any conflict. While estimates of cabinet unease may be exaggerated, this latter complaint was dramatically underlined by the YouGov poll for ITV finding that 58 per cent of people were not convinced that President Saddam Hussein was sufficiently dangerous to justify war, compared to 34 per cent who said he was.
Some 30 per cent of those questioned believed the main war aim of Britain and America was to secure and control oil supplies. And while a narrow majority of 53 per cent would back the use of British troops in an action approved by the UN, just 13 per cent of those responding said they would support British involvement without UN backing.
Dismissing suggestions of a possible cabinet split over Iraq as "complete nonsense", Mr Blair time and again yesterday emphasised his own desire to follow the UN route, while repeating his familiar warning that the UN must be the means of resolving the issue of weapons of mass destruction and not of avoiding it.
At his first televised press conference of the new year, Mr Blair stepped up his battle for public hearts and minds, while countering Conservative charges of a cabinet "wobble" over war by defining the issue of deadly weapons as a direct threat to Britain's national security.
Acknowledging the importance of January 27th and the presentation of Dr Hans Blix's report to the UN, Mr Blair sought to assure Labour doubters that neither he nor President Bush were "putting speculative or arbitrary timeframes on this".
However, while stressing his preference for a second UN resolution before any military action, and again suggesting confidence in it would be forthcoming, Mr Blair left his critics in little doubt that he remains ready to act with America should the UN fail.
"I want to make it quite clear - and I believe this to be the position of all the main Security Council members - if there is a breach we would expect the United Nations to honour the undertakings that were given and make sure that the will of the UN is upheld," said Mr Blair:
"I have no doubt at all they will do so. If there is a breach of the existing UN resolution I have no doubt at all that the right thing to do in those circumstances is disarm Saddam by force."
Pressed to say whether a second resolution authorising action was a political necessity, Mr Blair continued: "Our preference is of course to go back, have the discussion in the Security Council and have a fresh resolution."
The Prime Minister believed this "was what was effectively agreed at the time of the first resolution".
However: "The only qualification we have added . . . is if you did have a breach, went back to the UN but someone put an unreasonable or unilateral block on action. In those circumstances we have said we can't be in a position where we are confined in that way."
Given a proven breach and UN sanction, Mr Blair believed he would have majority backing from the British public.