The British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, is bracing himself for a double dose of defeat in today's elections for London mayor and for some 3,300 seats in 152 councils across England.
A one-million letter-drop from Mr Blair to Labour supporters in London backing Mr Frank Dobson, a rash of newspaper endorsements for the Conservative, Mr Steven Norris, and attempts to link Mr Ken Livingstone with Monday's "anti-capitalist" riots still seem unlikely to stop a runaway success for the maverick left-winger's campaign to become Britain's first directly elected mayor.
Mr Livingstone, who quit Labour after promising to abide by the outcome of its selection process, has proclaimed May 4th "Independent's Day". And his expected triumph could boost the Green Party's chances of securing at least two seats in the new 25-member Greater London Assembly - and thus Mr Darren Johnson's chances of serving as Mr Livingstone's deputy.
Mr Blair's belated "midterm" misery will almost certainly be compounded by Conservative gains of some 400 to 500 seats in the English council elections. Labour is defending against its successes in the same contests held in 1996, just one year before the fall of the Major government.
Gains of this order, on an estimated national lead of 5 per cent - but on a vastly lower turnout than would apply in a general election - would buttress Mr William Hague's claim to be in the recovery business, and secure his position as Tory leader until the general election, expected next year.
However, while the primary focus is on New Labour's expected poll rebuff, there is at least the possibility of a bloody nose too for Mr Hague.
Having earlier played down reports of a Liberal Democrat surge, Conservative sources last night said the outcome of the Romsey by-election - caused by the death of Sir Michael Colvin - was now "touch and go".
The Liberal Democrat leader, Mr Charles Kennedy, yesterday sought to maximise the chances of tactical voting for his candidate, Ms Sandra Gidley, by claiming Labour was not seriously contesting the by-election. And he predicted the contest was shaping up for "a photo-finish".
Failure to hold Romsey - where the Conservatives are defending a general election majority of 8,585 - would be a damaging blow to Mr Hague and could reopen questions about his leadership and the populist line he has recently developed on a range of issues - from crime to Clause 28 and the "promotion" of homosexuality in schools and the handling of "bogus" asylum-seekers.
In boisterous pre-election exchanges during question time in the Commons yesterday, Mr Hague attacked Mr Blair as soft on crime and soft on the causes of crime and challenged him to back Mr Norris's pledge to ban a repeat May Day demonstration next year.
But, referring to the assault on a Birmingham care worker on Monday, Mr Kennedy, without naming him, accused Mr Hague of resorting to saloon bar language and gutter politics.
And on the issue of asylum-seekers, Mr Blair told MPs the cost of asylum amounted to one fifth of 1 per cent of government spending, and said Mr Hague's approach to the issue showed his "desperation is greater than his judgment".
However, there will be no disguising the personal humiliation for Mr Blair if, as expected, Mr Livingstone triumphs in London. And Labour took the gloves off as campaigning drew to a close.
A full-page advert in last night's London Evening Standard for Mr Dobson posed the question: "Worried about the cost of Livingstone?" and the answer "You should be" above and below a photograph of the Cenotaph vandalised during Monday's riots.
As Mr Norris similarly cast Mr Livingstone on the side of rioters, strikers and big spenders against Londoners, Labour was dispatching that lastminute letter from Mr Blair declaring: "There are now real doubts about the suitability of Ken Livingstone - doubts about policy, doubts about statements he has made, doubts about what he stands for, doubts about his honesty. I know that Frank Dobson will not let you down."
However, the bookmakers have long since stopped taking bets, certain that Londoners were determined to let down Mr Blair.