Exit polls conducted after the fifth and last round of voting in the Indian elections have predicted the 22-party coalition led by the nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will return to power with a slim majority.
According to the poll broadcast by Doordarshan yesterday, the BJP-led alliance of the Prime Mi nister, Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee, will win 287 seats in the 545member Lok Sabha (People's House). The opposition Congress Party, led by the Italian-born Ms Sonia Gandhi, along with its partners would secure 174 seats.
The exit poll gave regional parties, which played a crucial role in the last elections, only 94 seats.
Another exit poll, conducted by a private television channel, gave the BJP-led group between 295 to 305 seats and the Congress 145 to 155 seats. The regional parties, according to the poll, would win 85 to 95 seats.
The elections will decide the fate of Ms Gandhi, making her political debut in two constituencies, one in the north and one in the south. The bookies have given Ms Gandhi better odds to win the seat her late husband Rajiv Gandhi once held at Amethi, 600 miles east of Delhi.
The BJP's slim majority - it needs to win 272 seats to form the government - has the potential to generate further political instability. Its coalition partners accounted for around a third of the seats, according to the exit polls, and were likely to make demands on the Hindu nationalists which they may not be able to fulfil.
Elections were called when the BJP-led coalition lost its majority by a single vote in April after one of its allies withdrew support following differences about power sharing.
"It seems the elections have given no party a decisive victory," a poll analyst said. Since the BJP will have about 200 seats, the prospect of political tension cannot be ruled out, he added.
Ballot boxes, meanwhile, covered with cloth and stamped with wax seals have been taken to state capitals for safekeeping till counting begins on Wednesday morning.
A handful of constituencies have yet to vote, however, because of ballot rigging, flooding in many eastern areas and due to the assassination of a handful of candidates.
Parliament will be summoned by October 21st.
Meanwhile, at least 30 people were killed in poll-related violence yesterday. The main incident occurred in north-eastern Manipur state where left-wing separatists gunned down 16 people, including five paramilitary personnel.
The other killings took place in the neighbouring states of Assam and Tripura, bringing to around 90 the total number of people killed since voting began on September 5th.
"We can take some satisfaction that a difficult election with limited forces has gone off well," the election commissioner, Mr Mohinder Singh Gill, said. Voter turnout, he said, was about 58 per cent. More than 620 million Indians are eligible to vote.
Once the results are posted later this week, President K. R. Narayanan will in all probability invite Mr Vajpayee to form a government.
Political analysts say that since two or three of the BJP's partners are likely to have 10 to 15 seats each, they could "blackmail" the Hindu nationalists into giving into their demands for important cabinet portfolios.
Hence, many people believe the new government might not last its five-year term and India could face another election soon.
AFP reports:
President Clinton plans to visit Pakistan and India early next year, Pakistan's Foreign Minister said yesterday. Mr Sartaj Aziz said in Islamabad, on his return from the UN General Assembly in New York, the visit would be part of US efforts to help resolve differences between the south-Asian neighbours.
The Pakistani Prime Minister, Mr Nawaz Sharif, last met Mr Clinton on July 4th during the recent conflict between Pakistan and India over Kashmir.
The 10-week conflict triggered by the capture of strategic peaks by pro-Pakistan guerrillas on the Indian side of the divided state ended when Mr Sharif agreed to their withdrawal.
He justified the decision by saying Mr Clinton had promised to take a "personal interest" in a negotiated settlement of the Kashmir dispute.