A sharp increase from 28 per cent to 55 per cent has been recorded in the number of young people (18 to 24) who say they will definitely vote on the Nice Treaty, the Referendum Commission has reported.
In the most recent Irish Times poll, young people divided 26 to 25 per cent in favour of Nice. High turnout could therefore boost the No vote significantly, but on current voting intentions, not enough to carry the day.
The commission, in its second poll since the referendum was announced, has also found both siginificant increases in the numbers who say they will "definitiely" vote - only a rough guide to those who actually will do so - and an increase in the numbers who say they understand the issues.
Disappointingly, however, the latter figure, although up nine percentage points, remains at a somewhat paltry 25 per cent.
The Referendum Commission, chaired by Mr Justice Tom Finlay, is responsible for strictly factual public information about the referendum and for maximising turnout.
Mr Finlay said yesterday at a press conference that the poll reflected "definite progress", notably in the numbers who said they would vote - up 11 percentage points to 70 per cent, reflecting increases in all age groups.
He said the poll showed a marked decline in in those who said they could not identify the main issues relating to the treaty (from 41 per cent to 24 per cent). And 46 per cent now identified enlargement as the main issue (up from 32 per cent).
There was a small decline in the numbers identifying neutrality as the issue (29 per cent to 26 per cent), and immigration (6 per cent to 5 per cent).
Mr Finlay said that the balance of the commission's phone line queries reflected similar preoccupations.
Polling was conducted between September 30th and October 3rd, while the first poll was conducted a month earlier. The commission's final ads will focus primarily on persuading voters to turn out.