The security reaction to the bombing of Omagh seems to have overshadowed yesterday's publication of the 1997 Crime Report.
The 99-page report was despatched from the Department of Justice in brown envelopes without a press conference, as if it contained bad news. However, the glossy publication contains the best figures of the decade, with the right graphs going in the right direction. Crime was down last year by 10 per cent and the detection rate is up to 43 per cent.
Garda management and the Government were so pleased with the 10 per cent drop that the news had been leaked before the year was even over. This year's figures are now being published every three months.
The Crime Report, compiled from returns by all Garda stations in the State, present the most detailed picture of crime trends available. One of the most interesting is a geographical breakdown of drug offences, confirming growing anecdotal evidence that rural Ireland, and particularly the south, has an active recreational drug scene.
While 99 per cent of heroin offences were recorded in the Dublin Metropolitan Area, 52 per cent of offences involving ecstasy were recorded in the Southern Region of Limerick, Kerry and Cork. Only 20 per cent of ecstasy offences were recorded in Dublin.
More than 200 people were prosecuted in the southern region for drug-dealing, up to 20 times the number prosecuted in the northern region of Donegal and the Border counties. The Dublin region saw a 271 per cent increase in the number of people prosecuted for drug offences, reflecting the results of Operation Dochas, and the crackdown on addicts dealing to feed habits.
Two-thirds of drug seizures in 1997 involved cannabis, with more than 1.2 tonnes of cannabis resin seized compared to just 8.2 kilos of heroin. Just one in 10 seizures involved heroin. Critics will say the figures show the "war on drugs" is targeting large cannabis hauls, rather than heroin, the drug responsible for most human devastation and crime.
Gardai argue that heroin is smuggled in smaller quantities by large numbers of couriers, often carrying the drug internally, and therefore more difficult to seize. The rising market for recreational drugs and the use of Ireland for drug-trafficking is also highlighted by the seizure of more than 100 kilos of amphetamine sulphate or speed, and 3,889 amphetamine tablets, as well as 17,516 ecstasy tablets.
The geographic breakdown of all crime reported shows a slight swing away from the Dublin domination of the crime scene. The city always had a disproportionate level of crime, with 49 offences per 1,000 people, compared to just 11 per 1,000 in northern and western regions.
However, as crime rises marginally outside Dublin it has also dropped from 58 per cent in Dublin in 1996 to 56 per cent last year. With evidence that two-thirds of crime is drug-related, Dublin's disproportionate share of crime seems directly linked to its population of up to 8,000 heroin addicts.
There has been a marked decline in the perception of a public panic over drugs and the issue of terrorist activity will dominate in the coming months. Both the crime figures and the Government's stance on a security crackdown should mean that Garda Commissioner Pat Byrne will be pushing an open door when he requests a supplement to the 1998 overtime budget.
A figure of £44 million was spent last year, much of it on high-profile, garda-on-the-beat operations of Dochas and surveillance on drug suspects. This year's allocation of £27 million has been spent and Garda management are due to review spending requirements next month. Mr Byrne will also be looking for funding for a second helicopter to improve the efficiency of the Garda Air Support Unit.
Gardai and politicians will be hopeful that this year's figures will at least repeat the fall of last year, producing what could be the lowest figure in almost 20 years.
The policy of courts remanding more people charged with drug-related crime and the increase in prison spaces are expected to maintain that drop in crime.
More than 6,400 offences detected were committed by people on bail, a decrease of 500 offences from the previous year. This level of 17 per cent of detected crime committed on bail was similar to 1996, despite the passing of the bail laws. However, the Minister for Justice, Mr O'Donoghue, has admitted that the referendum cannot be implemented until the prison space has been provided.
In a recent interview with The Irish Times, Mr Byrne said the courts and prison system were crammed with offenders as a result of garda operations. Next month the garda representative associations begin pay talks on productivity, changes to rosters and new technology.
Next month should also see the allocation of a £20 million youth services fund to community projects designed to keep young people off heroin. The activities of local drug task forces and the National Drugs Strategy Team have been assessed by outside consultants recently. Their future, as partnerships between gardai, communities, local authorities, and the Government, has not been spelled out by the Government and decisions will need to be taken.
As an indicator of future crime levels, juvenile crime can provide some insight. More than one in five people referred to the National Juvenile Liaison Office, which aims to keep young offenders out of the adult criminal justice system, were children aged between 10 and 13. The majority were in the 15- to 16-year age bracket, but just under 500 referrals related to children under 10.
The disturbing increase in sex offences by 21 per cent, including a 42 per cent increase in reported rapes and a 9 per cent increase in reported sexual assault, has been attributed to a greater willingness to report such crimes. While this has been welcomed by groups such as the Rape Crisis Centre, it is not clear that the total increase can be attributed to a change in attitudes.
Much of the decrease in crime has been attributed to the emphasis on tackling organised and drug-related crime, using some of the resources aimed at terrorism.
Just as no analysis of crime policy can ignore reaction to the murder of Veronica Guerin, the murders of 28 people in Omagh are expected to provide another benchmark for criminal justice policy.