The centre-left coalition government of Prime Minister Massimo D'Alema appeared to be the big loser and the centre-right Forza Italia party of media tycoon Silvio Berlusconi the big winner in yesterday's European parliamentary elections in Italy, according to initial exit-poll forecasts.
While election analysts and political commentators were reluctant to place too much faith in the exit poll findings, released seconds after polling booths closed at 10.00 p.m. local time, the size of the predicted Forza Italia victory suggested that even when the count is finalised this morning, it will emerge as by far the single strongest party in the country. Exit poll forecasts showed Forza Italia with a minimum 23 per cent, while centre-right opposition forces combined to poll a minimum 46 per cent.
By comparison, the Democratic Left (ex-PCI) party of Massimo D'Alema recorded a minimum 16 per cent, while the current centre left coalition polled a combined 31 per cent.
If confirmed, these results will mark a sharp reversal on those returned at the April 1996 General Election when Democratic Left emerged the strongest single party with a 21.1 per cent vote, just ahead of Forza Italia with 20.6 per cent.
Among those factors which have contributed to the government's not-unexpected reverse were not only the traditional mid-legislature unpopularity of a government but also disaffection following the centre-left putsch which last October brought down prime minister Romano Prodi, the man who had led the centre-left to that 1996 electoral victory.
Underlining that disaffection was a minimum 7 per cent vote returned by Mr Prodi's debutant political movement, the "Democrats", a centre-leftist alignment which included many well-known city mayors.
Perhaps the biggest surprise of yesterday's vote, however, may be the forecast 9 per cent minimum vote picked up the movement headed by ex-Radical and current European Commissioner, Ms Emma Bonino. When the Radicals rang in 1996, they polled less than 2 per cent. Her 9 per cent vote along with the 12 per cent minimum forecast for the Alleanza Nazionale-Patto Segni and 2 per cent for the ex-Christian Democrat CCD list bring the combined opposition forces to a conservatively estimated 46 per cent, two points higher than in the 1996 General Election.