How is America likely to act after the attacks in New York and Washington? Two possibilities are: an airborne landing to snatch Osama bin Laden and/or a bombing campaign to seal his hiding places or hit him on the move.
Assume that bin Laden locates himself in remote central Afghanistan, (even less accessible than Kandahar, where he is thought to be now). He would be about 800 miles from the Gulf; well within bomber aircraft and cruise missile range, but in ferocious terrain. Parachuting in a large force would be difficult.
Unless a suitable dropping zone exists, some troops will fall into ravines whose walls can not be scaled. Others will be marooned on mountains, separated from their comrades. Many of these thoroughly fit, well-trained troops will get together somehow, but others may be lost.
Facilities in Pakistan - say at Karachi Port and Quetta plus the 650-mile road connecting them - would be desirable.
Quetta to Kandahar (where bin Laden is supposed to be now) is about 130 miles. Quetta is a high, difficult area.
Airfields will be sought also. The Pakistan Air Force has three regional commands: Peshawar, Sargodha and Faisal. We may hear more of these places.
In fact, big parachute landings are no longer the normal way of inserting elite troops, especially in difficult terrain. Troops are landed more efficiently with less casualties by helicopter or aircraft, if at all possible.
Airfields would need protection. The Russian helicopter losses (said to have been one a day) to shoulder-fired anti-aircraft weapons (particularly the American "Stingers") will be remembered.
The Afghans were often on high spots above helicopters attacking convoys, etc, in valleys below and had the advantage. So rapid-reaction-strike aircraft would be needed to destroy anti-aircraft gunners. History shows nothing will be easy.
Both plans require good "real- time" intelligence, infrared and radar "imaging" and image processing. Photographs, etc, must be got to pilots' cockpits very rapidly. Escape should be prevented. "Real-time" intelligence means showing things as they happen.
Building airfields would be expensive and slow, but would allow troops to jump or be flown in with comparative safety.
Obviously, the co-operation of the Pakistan and Afghanistan governments would be necessary. There are political and diplomatic jobs to be done. If bin Laden leaves Afghanistan, five adjoining countries could be involved.
Next, America's assets.
Recent increases in "mobility forces" have given her considerable air and sealift capacities and has enabled equipment pre-positioning, etc. America's global, strategic reach has shrunk our world. She had about 600 refuelling planes and 700 large-capacity aircraft last year and continues building.
These, and the Air Force, put most of the world within range for troop and freight transport and bombing, ie, for "power projection". (There are said to be a few parts of China that cannot be reached.)
Ship and submarine-launched Cruise missiles of improved accuracy and range have already shown their flexibility and power.
The US Air Force (Regulars, Reserve and Air National Guard) reorganisation into 10 "Aerospace Expeditionary Forces" (AEFs) was started two years ago.
It is due for completion this year. It is essentially a deployment re-arrangement to give Air Force personnel more stable lives by reducing unexpected deployments and spreading them more evenly.
Each AEF has 10,000-15,000 personnel, approximately 200 fighter/attack planes and an air mobility unit. One or more AEFs could be deployed to Afghanistan or its neighbouring countries. This would be a test of the system.
The American Special Operations Forces are publicity shy.
They were derided after their failed attempt to rescue American diplomatic hostages in Iran (1980). Tom Clancy's Special Forces summarises their subsequent problems and regeneration. Despite its lamentable lack of an index, it describes well the complex set-up. The strength is 30,000 men.
Their mission list is extraordinary (from counter-proliferation to disrupting information systems) but includes combating terrorism and direct action, "a fancy term for a raid". The troops are picked for language, engineering and medical skills, apart from their rigorous military training.
(This writer served with some in the 1970s and recalls a Green Beret captain who suggested modifying our standard Willys Jeeps for patrolling in the powdery, high sand-dunes of the North Sinai.
He asked for a mechanic and produced two extensively modified vehicles in two weeks. He then set up a desert driving school. Remarkably, his paperwork was as meticulous as his engineering).
There are various specialised organisations. The Strategic/ Intelligence Collection Satellites are certainly working on the bin Laden problem already. We can take it that the Americans are not going to do things by halves.
Despite the many references above, this writer is not assuming that Osama bin Laden is the lone culprit for last week's atrocities. But one thinks he will be clobbered anyway.
Col Doyle is a retired Army officer who saw service with the UN