Is East Timor about to become Australia's Vietnam? The question arises after four shooting incidents in as many days on the border between the former Portuguese colony and West Timor, in the first clashes since the Australian-led UN force (Interfet) entered East Timor on September 20th. Three pro-Jakarta militiamen and an Indonesian policeman have been killed and two Australian soldiers wounded.
The situation so worries the Australian government that the Prime Minister, Mr John Howard, called yesterday for urgent high-level talks with Indonesia "to agree on measures to reduce the chances of similar incidents in future near the West Timor border".
The most serious incident occurred on Sunday when Australian soldiers came under heavy automatic fire near the border at Motaain. It ended quickly and soldiers from each side were able to get together on the spot to discuss what happened.
The Indonesians produced an old Dutch colonial map showing that the Interfet position, on the only road linking the two halves of Timor island, was inside West Timor, and acknowledged opening fire first.
The Australians were using a 1992 map produced by Indonesia which located them just inside East Timor. Interfet has no mandate to cross into West Timor.
The Australian commander of Interfet, Maj-Gen Peter Cosgrove, has to be concerned that the shooting was a deliberate act to test the international force, and that Jakarta may not fully control its armed forces (TNI) in West Timor, where there are hundreds of army deserters of East Timorese origin.
They are threatening to begin a long conflict along the heavily forested border between East Timor and West Timor.
Mr Joao da Silva Tovares, commander of the pro-Jakarta militias, boasted on Sunday at a parade of militiamen: "If it is an open war, they will defeat us in three hours, but if it is a guerrilla war, in 100 years they will not win."
Malaysia's Prime Minister, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, voiced anti-Australian sentiment in SouthEast Asia yesterday when he accused Australia of being the main beneficiary of a broken-up Indonesia but warned that East Timor could become "Australia's Vietnam" as it would require permanent protection.
The key elements, however, are not in place for a successful guerrilla war. Unlike the Vietcong guerrillas who crossed from North to South Vietnam in the 1960s, pro-Jakarta militias will encounter a hostile population in East Timor, where 78.5 per cent voted for independence.
This was also the case when pro-Indonesian guerrillas penetrated East Timor in 1975, but the strategic balance was then very different.
The infiltrating irregulars were fully backed by Indonesia, and a battalion of Indonesian troops, including special forces units, had entered East Timor before the Indonesia army stormed Dili on December 7th, 1975, in an invasion which had the tacit approval of Australia and the US.
Australia and the United Nations are today committed to the defence of an independent East Timor and a more democratic and bankrupt Indonesia has promised co-operation with Inter fet. With East Timor's independence secure, it is also likely that many East Timorese who supported integration will now throw in their lot with a new government in Dili.
Also worrying for the militia leaders is a report in yesterday's Melbourne Age claiming that Australian agencies have intelligence showing the Indonesian army intends to silence pro-integration militia leaders who might implicate them in crimes against humanity.
The unsubstantiated report said the TNI was planning to intimidate or even kill militiamen to covered up atrocities in East Timor ahead of a proposed UN human rights investigation. Mr Howard told the Australian parliament in Canberra yesterday that his government regarded Sunday's incident "in the most serious terms" as it showed "that some elements in TNI may be disregarding the terms of the UN Security Council and continuing to support militia groups".
The mood in Jakarta, however, is hardening against Australia, and the killing of the Indonesian policeman, named as Mr Hari Sudibyo, could not have come at a worse time. The Indonesian parliament began consideration yesterday of a motion to endorse East Timor's independence vote which is expected to pass but with some opposition.
Legislators were lobbied by a pro-integration delegation of East Timorese, led by Mr Joao da Silva Tovares, one of the main architects of the terror in East Timor. National sovereignty and unity are emerging as new and powerful themes in Indonesian politics. Many parliament members urged the military to defend Indonesia's sovereignty against Interfet. "The TNI should take stern action," said Mr Slamet Effendy Yusuf, deputy chairman of the former ruling Golkar party. "If they enter the Indonesian territory, just shoot. Don't tolerate it."
The party spokesman of the opposition leader, Ms Megawati Sukarnoputri, who may be elected president next week, voiced similar views. "What are they doing in our territory? Kick them out. We have to defend our nation," the spokesman said.
The Foreign Minister, Mr Ali Alatas, deplored the incident and said Interfet should not be "trigger happy" in such a highly sensitive area. Multinational troops have been expanding into East Timor's border region over the past week and about 2,000 will soon be deployed there.