The result of today's opinion poll - which shows a majority of the public opposed to the ASTI's 30 per cent pay demand - will dismay and disappoint many secondary teachers.
For years, teachers have taken it for granted that they enjoy a high level of public support. So why has the ASTI campaign failed to catch fire?
The answer has much to do with the internal dynamics of ASTI. The union has been bitterly divided between those, like Charlie Lennon, who favour compromise, and those grouped loosely around former president Ms Bernadine O'Sullivan, who are ready, if necessary, to disrupt the Leaving Cert exams.
In his Irish Times article the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, suggested the ASTI dispute might be driven by internal power struggles. This was firmly denied by both Mr Lennon and Ms O'Sullivan (who harbours no political ambitions within ASTI) but it has clearly had an impact on public opinion.
The failure of the ASTI to exempt Leaving Cert students has also eroded public support. During their dispute, the nurses were careful to provide emergency hospital cover. The ASTI opted to take a very hard line, declaring how it was ready to launch its "nuclear button" of hitting the exams. This has backfired spectacularly. Public support for the union has been chipped away.
The union's failure to win support from the leaderships of the other teaching unions, the INTO and the TUI, has also damaged its case. The other teaching unions have been content to press their pay claims through the Programme for Prosperity and Fairness (PPF) and the benchmarking pay review body. They have not closed schools. They have not threatened exams.
The public has been left to wonder why the PPF and benchmarking are good enough for INTO and the TUI, but not for the ASTI. It is a question the union has still to answer in a convincing way.
Most of all, the ASTI campaign has suffered because it has failed to justify a 30 per cent pay increase. Until this week, the union has offered nothing in return for this very sizeable increase. It has not offered more productivity, despite the fact that this State has one of the shortest school years in the OECD. It has not offered more accountability, even though only a tiny minority of teachers are inspected regularly.
It has banged the table and demanded 30 per cent with no strings attached, even while complaining about fat salaries in the private sector.
This approach might have been fine when the teacher, the doctor and the parish priest represented the pillars of society, but in the New Ireland, the public is more sceptical. It expects those who want more to give more. It expects those who want private sector-style pay to adopt some of the work practices taken for granted in the private sector.