Hopes that Northern Ireland may be able to retain its Objective One status for structural funding are being played down in Brussels in the lead-up to meetings this week between senior Northern politicians and the European Commission.
However, more realistic opportunities for extra EU funding for the North may lie either in a case being made behind the scenes for the continuation of the £400 million five-year special programme for peace and reconciliation, or in a substantial expansion of Interreg funding.
The President of the Commission, Mr Jacques Santer, is likely to face pressure on the issue from the North's First and Deputy First Ministers, Mr David Trimble and Mr Seamus Mallon, when they meet him on Thursday.
Both men will be here as part of a contingent of more than 100 Northern Ireland Assembly members on a fact-finding visit to Brussels this week. They arrive tomorrow for a programme of seminars and workshops on how the EU works.
Mr Trimble and Mr Mallon are also expected to have separate meetings with Social, Transport and Regional Affairs Commissioners Mr Padraig Flynn, Mr Neil Kinnock and Ms Monika Wulf-Mathies. In addition to discussions on cash and the workings of the EU, the group is also likely to focus on how the Assembly and the executive should be represented in Brussels.
Official EU negotiations will still be conducted through the British embassy here and the Northern Ireland centre in Brussels already plays an important monitoring role for business, local authorities and the Northern Ireland office. The Assembly is likely to want to follow the example of other European regions, such as the German lander, by creating its own distinct political presence here.
Officials from the Scottish Office have been posted to the British embassy for some months to prepare options on representation for the Scottish parliament, and their work is likely to be of interest to the Northern politicians.
On funding, the North currently exceeds the eligibility limit for Objective One status - 75 per cent of EU average GDP per capita - by some 10 percentage points, but only exceeded by three points the crucial average of the reference years, 1973-1975.
The Commission, however, and particularly Ms Wulf-Mathies, are understood to be strongly opposed to granting exceptional derogations to the rules, as they regard them as dangerous precedents and the offer of transitional status as generous.
A fallback position for Mr Trimble and Mr Mallon is likely to be a case for continuation beyond its five years of the special peace programme, perhaps under a new heading. That is the favoured approach of Mr Flynn and some senior Commission officials keen to see the North's peace agreement marked. A continuation would have the virtue of not being seen as a precedent, but it would pose funding problems, probably requiring a special new budget line that might be hard to negotiate. Ms Wulf-Mathies is understood to prefer Interreg as a vehicle for extra funding for the North. Interreg is a community initiative, run separately in Brussels from national programmes, which focuses on cross-Border activities.
A simplification in Agenda 2000 of the community initiatives should see significantly more money becoming available for Interreg. It is unlikely to go near making up for the transitional phasing out of Objective One cash which brought the North £1 billion in the last budget period.
