North Belfast:6 seats
THE DUP and Sinn Féin – if one is still allowed use this figure of speech – have the Ulster Unionist candidate and outgoing Assembly member Fred Cobain in their sights in North Belfast. Cobain though is ducking and diving and fighting for his political life.
Ten years ago Nigel Dodds took the Westminster seat here from the Ulster Unionist’s Cecil Walker – who had held it for almost 20 years – and the DUP man has maintained a tight grasp on it ever since, but by margins that grow more slender.
In 2001 Dodds was more than 6,000 votes ahead of Sinn Féin’s Gerry Kelly; four years later that margin had reduced to more than 5,000 votes; while in last year’s Westminster poll his majority over the outgoing Sinn Féin junior minister had slipped to just over 2,000 votes.
The DUP with 40 per cent of the vote from last year compared to 34 per cent for Sinn Féin has nearly three quotas here and therefore would appear best placed to take Cobain’s seat. But equally, as is evident from these figures, Sinn Féin’s encroachment continues relentlessly. Moreover, because of the DUP’s decision to progressively step away from double-jobbing, Dodds is not running, which may also be a factor. The SDLP has a solid quota and it would be a major story were outgoing Assembly member Alban Maginness to lose.
The Alliance Party, which is running Billy Webb, hopes for consolidation and growth.
Also standing is the courageous independent unionist Raymond McCord, who campaigned against the north Belfast UVF gang who murdered his son Raymond jnr in 1997. John Lavery is keeping the flag flying for the Workers’ Party.
But the main focus remains on whether the DUP and Sinn Féin predators can finally do for Cobain. Whichever of the two parties is best at vote management in North Belfast will have the best chance of gaining that additional seat.
Cobain, however, is a wily and tenacious battler.
