Fermanagh & South Tyrone, 6 seats
THIS CONSTITUENCY resonates with the stories of elections past, and it will be no different this time.
The last Westminster elections nearly 12 months ago saw Sinn Féin’s Michelle Gildernew retain her seat against the unionist unity candidate Rodney Connor by just four votes – the smallest majority in the UK. To achieve this Sinn Féin called for SDLP “loaned votes” and got half the usual SDLP total.
This time, Sinn Féin will try to hold on to them, but veteran SDLP man Tommy Gallagher is looking to get them back to consolidate his party’s hold on one Assembly seat.
The other echo of previous elections is when hunger striker Bobby Sands took this Westminster seat in a byelection. The 30th anniversary of his death falls on polling day, May 5th.
Sinn Féin is out for a third seat in Fermanagh South Tyrone where the nationalist vote is edging ahead of its unionist counterpart. The SDLP will need a replacement for Mr Gallagher, but is constrained from running its last Westminster candidate, former UTV journalist Fearghal McKinney, just yet.
Ms Gildernew, the outgoing and popular Agriculture Minister, again leads the Sinn Féin charge but her party has been hit by defections. However, this is not the sort of trouble that has bothered Sinn Féin elections in the past. Pat Cox (Independent) is unlikely to rock the boat too much.
The unionist side of the election is dotted with big names, not least Ulster Unionist leader Tom Elliott, outgoing Industry Minister Arlene Foster and DUP colleague Lord [Maurice] Morrow.
This is a big test for the UUP which is putting much faith in its party leader and his young running mate Kenny Donaldson. They will be gunning for Lord Morrow’s seat and attempting to stem the drift away from their party.
Both the big unionist parties’ task is complicated by Jim Allister’s Traditional Unionist Vote (TUV). Opposed to the Stormont powersharing arrangements, TUV candidate Alex Elliott will try to make a name for himself here. Alliance has nominated Asian-origin Hannah Su, a commendable decision in an area that is not yet fertile territory.