As both sides stand firm, de Chastelain may hold key to breaking the weapons deadlock

Like swans which appear to be proceeding serenely on their way but are paddling furiously beneath the surface, the two governments…

Like swans which appear to be proceeding serenely on their way but are paddling furiously beneath the surface, the two governments and just about everyone else in the peace process are working hard at trying to resolve the decommissioning problem.

Despite its length - about 75 minutes - the meeting between Mr Trimble and Mr Adams at Stormont yesterday appears to have been a dialogue of the deaf. The two men gave separate press conferences afterwards, bringing reporters for one more trip over the well-trodden ground on this issue.

There was no breakthrough, but Mr Trimble was relaxed, almost chirpy. Sources close to him spoke in soothing tones to the reporters: this was not a crisis, we have surmounted bigger problems in the past, this difficulty was always going to arise but it can be overcome.

Sinn Fein sources were sticking to the letter of the agreement. The party had fulfilled its obligations, but if David Trimble was demanding an IRA surrender, republicans would respond by asking: "Who the hell does he think he is?"

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There was still a month to go before the October 31st deadline for agreeing the cross-Border bodies, which - according to republicans and nationalists - requires the prior establishment of the new executive.

On a slightly ominous note, Sinn Fein sources reminded the media of what can happen in Northern Ireland when there is a political vacuum. A similar note was struck earlier in a press release from Mr Gerry Kelly - the names on Sinn Fein press statements can have their own special importance. Mr Kelly, revered among militants, said there was "growing deep concern among republicans" at the delay in setting up the executive.

Republicans striking a warning note; unionists digging in their heels: all very familiar. Despite the urgings of the grassroots in both communities in the aftermath of the Omagh blast, when they told the politicians to "get on with it", stasis and stalemate are the order of the day.

General John de Chastelain, chairman of the decommissioning body, may be the only hope. Political insiders say that in his meeting with Mr Martin McGuinness last week the general set out a number of questions - as many as a dozen - for the republican movement on the decommissioning issue.

The questions concerned "operational matters". Other paramilitary groups received the same questions, which related to the size of their arsenals and the "modalities" of decommissioning. Informed sources believed the IRA would be in a position to respond constructively to the questions. The terms of the agreement require the decommissioning body to "monitor, review and verify progress" on the weapons issue and report to both governments at regular intervals.

If that body were in a position to offer an opinion that the IRA and the other paramilitaries were serious about getting the gun out of politics, it would have to be taken seriously on all sides. The unionists would still insist thatweapons be handed in or destroyed "up front", but if the decommissioning body expressed its confidence in the peaceful intentions of the IRA, that would at the very least change the climate for the better.

Hardliners on both sides are watching to see if their leaders blink first. There are rumblings from the republican grassroots which to some extent echo theearly stages of the unravelling of the last ceasefire.

On the unionist side, Mr Trimble has to pet through his party conference in Derry on October 24th. This Weekend he addresses the Young Unionists inBelfast, speaking immediately after a debate on "constitutional affairs" which discusses a motion that "Sinn Fein/IRA are unreconstructed terrorists and should be excluded from government".

Proposed by a UUP Assembly Member for North Down, Mr Peter Weir, the motion opposes Sinn Fein places on an executive until a number 6f conditions havebeen met, including disbandment of the IRA.

Meanwhile, speculation continues about official acceptance that the Loyalist Volunteer Force ceasefire is genuine, possibly accompanied by LVF decommissioning. Unionists would probably use such a development to increase pressure on Sinn Fain and the IRA.

The Blair camp is said to be quite depressed at the trend of events. Blackpool failed to produce the winning formula. Now there are suggestions that the formal transfer of powers to the news institutions might not take place until next April.

There remains the possibility, floated in one newspaper recently, that the executive could be named - but not meet for the time being. This would answer the republican demand for places in government while staving off the psychological shock for unionists of seeing their representatives sitting at the cabinet table with republicans.

As a side-show to the Trimble-Adams standoff, there is rowing tension between the SDLP and Sinn Fein. Mr Seamus Mallon has been assiduously evenhanded inhis criticism of both unionists and republicans over the decommissioning impasse. This brought a rebuke from his constituency colleague, Mr Conor Murphy of Sinn Fein, who accused him of "bailing out the unionists" and throwing Trimble a lifeline.

Peace process insiders admit that "everyone is getting more and more worried" about the weapons 'stalemate. Nationalists are impatient over what they see as Mr Trimble's insistence on riding two horses at once - both peacemaker and hardline unionist.

Unionists see Gerry Adams performing a similar trick: one hand reaching out in friendship, the other a clenched fist. Ringmasters Blair and Ahern may have to step in again, as they did before Good Friday: the helicopters could be whirring over Stormont before the month is out.