Ulster Unionist Party Assembly members opposed to the decommissioning/devolution deal are in a position to cause considerable problems in the Assembly this week if they defy the wishes of the Ulster Unionist Council.
How this crucial week in Northern politics will unfold is largely down to how those UUP Assembly members opposed to the deal behave. If they accept the decision imposed by the UUC on Saturday then devolution should be completed reasonably smoothly this week. If one or more defect to the anti-Belfast Agreement bloc, however, it could be a very troublesome week.
The Assembly meets this afternoon to ratify the executive but unionist dissidents - if they so choose - could delay that by at least a day.
Anti-agreement unionists outside the UUP currently have 29 votes. There is a motion down today to be taken before the formation of the executive calling for the exclusion of Sinn Fein from the Assembly.
This requires the support of 30 Assembly members to be debated, which means only one of the UUP's 27 Assembly members would have to add his or her name to such a motion. Equally, the No camp, if it has the 30 names, could table several other motions to act as a sort of filibuster against the creation of the executive.
This has the potential to put back the establishment of the executive and the institutions. It could require a special order from the Northern Secretary, Mr Peter Mandelson, to guillotine such actions. This in turn could prompt legal challenges, further delaying proceedings.
Furthermore, the Alliance motion today seeking to overturn Mr Seamus Mallon's resignation as Deputy First Minister also opens an opportunity for the No camp in the UUP to dig in their heels. How to resolve the issue of nullifying Mr Mallon's resignation is fraught with a number of problems, including the potential for legal challenges.
Moreover, unionist dissidents - again if they have the 30 votes - could put down a petition of concern, causing the adjournment for 24 hours of the ratification of the executive.
The most dramatic reaction to Saturday's UUC decision came from the West Tyrone MP, Mr William Thompson, who said he would resign from the party "when and if" devolution was completed on Thursday. He added, however, that he would hold on to his Westminster seat as an independent unionist MP.
Mr Jeffrey Donaldson, viewed by many as the main focus for UUP opposition to the devolution-decommissioning deal, said he had no intention of leading a "breakaway group" from the UUP. He would talk to his colleagues and his Lagan Valley constituency members to help him decide his future moves.
Asked if there was now a split in the party he replied: "There is a very serious difference of opinion." He seemed convinced that the formation of the executive was inevitable after the UUC vote. "I can't stop it happening," he said.
Mr William Ross, the East Derry anti-agreement MP, said he was "gutted" by the council vote. He added, however, that he wanted to limit the damage to the party. "I would encourage everyone to stay in the party. We will be back here in February," he said in the Waterfront Hall on Saturday.
Mr Jonathan Bell, a Craigavon UUP councillor who was heavily involved in co-ordinating the No campaign, said while "deeply disappointed" by the result he would continue to lobby against the deal.
