The opposition Democratic Alliance is fighting to block the governing party's ability to change the constituion, writes BILL CORCORANin Cape Town
WHEN SOUTH Africa’s main opposition unveiled its final general election campaign poster last Monday, its message highlighted the ruling party’s dominance as much as it did the Democratic Alliance’s (DA) electoral aspirations.
Addressing the central choice before the country’s voters ahead of the election next week, the DA’s poster urges the electorate to “Stop Zuma”, the African National Congress (ANC) leader, and his ruling party from retaining its two-thirds parliamentary majority, a majority which allows it to change the constitution.
DA leader Helen Zille told supporters outside parliament in Cape Town that the survival of South Africa’s hard-won democracy depended on the current ANC leadership being denied that super-majority, as it was bent on changing the constitution to suit its own agenda.
So far, she said, the ANC’s “controlling clique” had already disbanded the Scorpions elite police unit, fired former National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) head Vusi Pikoli, and “engineered” the early prison release of Mr Zuma’s financial benefactor Schabir Shaik, a convicted fraudster.
“All these steps have been taken to prevent the successful investigation and prosecution of corruption charges against Zuma,” Ms Zille said before warning Mr Zuma would run the country into the ground if the ANC won back two- thirds of the seats in parliament.
Last week the NPA withdrew charges against Mr Zuma relating to a multi-billion euro government arms deal in the late 1990s, citing evidence of political interference by high-level individuals opposed to the ANC leader becoming president.
Few in South Africa believe the ANC will fail to secure a fourth term in power after the ballots from the April 22nd poll are counted, or that Mr Zuma will fail in his bid to become the country’s next president.
The party itself has been bullish and forthright about its electoral goals ever since it began campaigning before Christmas, claiming it alone can be trusted to help the country’s poor.
On Monday Mr Zuma once again reminded ANC supporters in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) that the party’s election aim was to secure a massive majority in government, so it could “take decisions and deliver” on its promises.
“If you vote for another party it will be like throwing your vote into the bush because it won’t make any difference,” he said.
However, despite the party’s dominance, securing a two-thirds majority is by no means a foregone conclusion given a number of complicating factors, including the birth last November of the Congress of the People (Cope), a new party formed by disaffected ANC members.
The continuing controversies that attach themselves to Mr Zuma and other senior party members have also had a negative effect on supporters, as has the ANC’s inability effectively to tackle crime, corruption and poor service delivery.
Over the last five years the ANC’s absolute domination – it secured 69 per cent of the vote in the 2004 election — has been slowly eroded to such a point that most recent polls suggest it may not win complete control of the lower house next week.
Political analyst Roland Henwood, from the Centre for International Political Studies, says he believes South Africans are going to see the first real political contest in the country since 1994.
“There is a high level of dissatisfaction among the traditional ANC voters, particularly at the level of government, because of poor service delivery and the corruption charges Mr Zuma has been fighting for six years.
“The issue of Cope is also important in terms of votes as the new party was formed by disaffected members of the ANC – rather than being an independent opposition born out of principle — so many believe they will take support away from the ANC,” he says.
Indeed, if the polls are accurate, the DA is likely to beat the ANC in Western Cape province and take control with the support of other opposition parties, while Cope looks likely to secure enough votes to make a difference in up to five of the nine provinces.
South Africa's Sunday Timesnewspaper reported last week on four of the nine provinces and indications were that the ANC could suffer losses in three of them.
In Limpopo province it reported that Cope was capitalising on deep anger among local residents over poor service delivery, and quoted a recent survey that suggested the ANC’s majority would be down 39 per cent to 50 per cent, and that Cope might pick up 30 per cent of the vote.
Aside from campaigning issues, one of the most pleasing aspects about the run-up to next week’s election has been the relatively peaceful manner in which the parties have gone about securing support. While complaints of intimidation and attacks have surfaced in KZN, the violent clashes that occurred in the past between ANC supporters and members of the Zulu-dominated Inkatha Freedom Party have thus far failed to materialise.