'All-Ireland' challenge awaits FG leader

The party has warmed to a leader who keeps his eye on the ball, writes Mark Hennessy

The party has warmed to a leader who keeps his eye on the ball, writes Mark Hennessy

A year ago, Enda Kenny stood on the snow-covered peak of Mount Kilimanjaro alongside John Maughan the Mayo football team manager, following the long trek to the summit.

Today, both men are readying for some of the biggest challenges of their lives: Mr Maughan on Sunday in Croke Park, while Mr Kenny must seize upon Fine Gael's recent gains.

Neither task will be easy.

READ MORE

The Fine Gael leader has a noticeable bounce in his step following superb local and European Parliament results in June, and the arrival to the ranks of ex-Independent TD Dr Liam Twomey.

In an after-dinner speech on Thursday evening, Mr Kenny regaled colleagues with a tale of a farmer who had called to him during his 10-day break in Kerry during August.

"He wanted to come and talk about how we were doing. 'Ye have them scattered,' he said. Well, our job now is to keep them scattered," Mr Kenny said with determination.

However, the Government, equally, has its own grounds for optimism since rosier growth figures may make voters reluctant to remove Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats from the levers of power.

If any members of the Fine Gael parliamentary party were in any doubt about this, though most of them were not, the point was driven home strongly to them by the head of O'Brien Sandwiches, Mr Brodie Sweeney, on Thursday evening.

There is not, he said, "much mileage" in criticising the Government on the economy. "People like me think they are doing a good job," said the head of an operation that now has 260 franchises in 13 countries.

Instead, Fine Gael will have to produce a coherent alternative programme for government with Labour that promises believable reforms and, more importantly, will not scare the horses.

Fine Gael singularly failed to do this in 2002 with a manifesto that is more remembered for derided commitments, such as one to compensate Eircom shareholders.

The putative rainbow will have little room for significant taxation changes, particularly on issues such as the reduced capital gains tax levels that remain popular with the electorate.

If anything, Fine Gael must be seen by voters as the "safe" centre of such a coalition, emphasising the continuation of low taxes, while sharing the social justice platform with the other two parties.

In addition, Fine Gael must not be seen to carp about the economy's success, as Michael Noonan occasionally did. "We must praise the success, nothing else," said one senior party figure.

Before its gets around to hammering out a programme with Labour, however, Fine Gael has to sort out problems in its relationship with them - which, once more, is subject to simmering tensions.

Just a year ago, Labour was confident about itself and quietly scathing of Kenny's performance, regarding him, in their harsher moments, as little more than a well-meaning but weak individual.

Today the boot is on the other foot.

Cautiously optimistic, one Fine Gael figure said: "Everything we have done since the election has worked. That has not always been the case. You could argue that it was never the case."

Labour, on the other hand, is in turmoil after its presidential election debacle, a disappointing European election, while the parliamentary Labour party has frequently looked tired.

In Kilkenny this week, Fine Gael TDs, including Mr Kenny, reacted with great sensitivity to charges that they have begun to "strut" alongside their limping partners.

In his speech, Mr Kenny emphasised again and again, according to some of those present, that Fine Gael TDs guilty of displaying any such glee should immediately cease and desist.

"Sure, Labour could do a deal with Fianna Fáil, but it doesn't want to do so. They need Fine Gael, but we need them too. We can't do this without them," said one seasoned FG TD.

Mr Kenny's target of 30 extra Dáil seats will be greeted with derision in some quarters given that the party currently has just 32 TDs, including the recently arrived Dr Twomey.

In 2002, FG won only 18.7 per cent of the seats with 22.5 per cent of the first-preference vote - a turn-around on the usual outcomes, when it has traditionally punched above its weight.

If the situation reverted to the status quo ante, as Dr Garret FitzGerald has pointed out, Fine Gael would immediately win back 14 of the seats lost two years ago.

Many of these and others could come at Labour's expense unless Fianna Fail's vote in three-seat constituencies, in particular, dips below the 39 per cent that often gives it two out of three seats.

However, Labour's current seats would not have to be preyed upon if a local election results analysis prepared by FG strategist Mr Frank Flannery holds true in the general election.

In June, transfers between FG, Labour and Green candidates ranged between 57 per cent and 63 per cent, compared with approximately 30 per cent in the 2002 general election, Mr Flannery argued.

Believing that a 42 per cent vote share for all three parties would be enough for a Dáil majority, Mr Flannery mused that a majority could be achieved with Fine Gael getting 55 seats, Labour 25 and five for the Greens.

Caught on the hop on Thursday, Mr Kenny created unnecessary difficulties for himself by casting doubt on the need for the Greens' involvement in a coalition if the 30-seat target was achieved.

Yesterday, however, he moved to repair any fissures by emphasising that a pre-election pact with the Greens would be honoured, regardless of the outcome.

Leaving Kilkenny, Mr Kenny will have been only too aware that FG has just won "a provincial championship and not the All-Ireland".

Like Mr Maughan, Mr Kenny's real battle still lies ahead.