THERE is no hope for Northern Ireland unless the tribal sectarian nature of Northern politics is changed, the Alliance Party leader, Lord Alderdice, has told his party's annual conference in Belfast.
In a gloomy keynote address on Saturday, Lord Alderdice told the 300 delegates to the party's preelection conference there was absolutely no prospect of all inclusive talks.
Urging moderate nationalists and unionists to change their allegiance in the forthcoming general and local elections, Lord Alderdice said people "who vote for not an inch politicians will get not an inch politicians".
Much of Lord Alderdice's speech focused on his conviction that the Ulster Unionist Party leader, Mr David Trimble, did not want to make any compromise with nationalists, and that Mr John Hume and Mr Albert Reynolds had mistakenly believed that Sinn Fein and the IRA had changed their ambitions.
Lord Alderdice contended that the Hume Adams Reynolds initiative had left Northern Ireland in a more precarious state. He argued that what had been gained through the initial multi party talks of 1991 and 1992 from which Sinn Fein had been excluded was now lost because it left unionist and nationalist parties in more extreme positions.
"If the republican movement is not prepared to compromise on that issue [of a united Ireland], if it is not prepared to accept the reality of partition and that it is not going to change unless people vote for it to change, then no amount of talking, not even any amount of listening, will bring the result that has been set out by John Hume and Albert Reynolds.
"It is a sad and difficult fact, but a mistake was made at that time. It was this - it was said that the worst that could happen was that the initiative could fail. It was said that if people went down that road and investigated and talked and listened to people, and tried to make that process work the
Worst that could happen was that we would be back to guns.
"It might not work, people would be disappointed, but at least we would know where we were and we could continue on from where we left off. Not so."
Alliance took risks and engaged with Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland and in the Forum for Peace, and Reconciliation in Dublin, but there was no change in the republican movement's stance.
Unionists reacted to the initiative by believing a conspiracy was being hatched against them with the purpose of leading to a united Ireland. "The result of it was that the unionists moved away from their position of 1992."
The then leader of the UUP, Mr James Molyneaux, was prepared to go to Dublin then, to set down realistic proposals. He was prepared to countenance some form of "honourable compromise", but when the 1992 talks broke down, nationalists, rather than seeking to reach across the divide, decided to try and heal the divisions between Sinn Fein and the SDLP through the Hume Adams initiative.
"The result was that unionism moved to the right, and sharply so. Drumcree I led to Drumcree II. Jim Molyneaux stood down and they elected David Trimble," he said. He argued that Mr Trimble was still as hardline in his unionism as he was in his early Vanguard days.
He did not accept Mr Trimble was tactically putting forward a right wing mask because, in the face of the forthcoming elections, he must try and outflank the even more right wing unionism of the DUP and Mr Robert McCartney's UK Unionist Party.
"I happen to believe that while David Trimble is undoubtedly concerned about the election, he is a man of some principle and conviction who is actually following his principles. He does not want, any talks with Sinn Fein. He does not believe in any kind of honourable compromise with nationalism. As far as he is concerned, it is quite simple.
"The principle of consent means that Northern Ireland stays, within the United Kingdom for as long as a majority of people want and the rest will just have to, lump it. That is what he believes."
This meant that there could be no all inclusive talks involving Sinn Fein. While Sinn Fein could enter talks with an IRA ceasefire, the DUP and the UK Unionists would immediately leave those talks.
"David Trimble in all likelihood would discover he ought to be out of the talks as well," he said. "I don't believe there is and prospect whatever of all inclusive talks. None," the Alliance leader insisted.
While he believed Mr Hume had made a misjudgment in dealing with Sinn Fein, he could understand why nationalists might find themselves turning away from dealing with unionists.
Mr Trimble could be perceived gas taking his party away from any position were an accommodation could be found with nationalists. "You would never have seen Jim Molyneaux dancing a jig hand in hand with Ian Paisley down the Garvaghy Road. You wouldn't have seen Jim Molyneaux consorting with scoundrels like Billy Wright.
"You would not have seen Jim Molyneaux standing wagging his finger at the RUC when they were only trying to do their duty and protect the community from violence. David Trimble has taken his party to the right, but he was voted in as leader because he would take that party to the right.
"Drumcree III and David Trimble go hand in hand very much as Ian Paisley and David Trimble go hand in hand."
The Alliance leader said if there were a Labour government in Britain, John Major could be ousted and replaced by a more right wing leader who would be sympathetic to the Ulster Unionist Party. This in turn could lead to an end of the bipartisan approach to Northern Ireland in Westminster.
"This would simply give succour to those unionists who don't want to do any serious business with nationalists. In short it is a very difficult, potentially frightening situation up ahead. That is the reality. That is the truth."
Lord Alderdice said if people wanted to see change they must vote for change by supporting Alliance. He said the electorate at times of great violence and division leading up to elections in 1977 and 1987 sent a signal that it wanted a more reasonable, accommodating form of politics by supporting Alliance.
"There is no reason why it will not happen in 1997," he said. "It just requires a change. If people want to see a change they must send a message to the political parties, but if people vote for intransigence they will get an intractable problem."
The alternative to such a necessary change in the political climate inevitably would be greater community confrontation, greater polarisation and greater violence.
"It will be represented through deeper and darker violence than we have ever seen before," he warned. "Maybe sooner, maybe later, but if those on both sides insist that the future is to be found in them winning and the other losing, then that is the inevitable outcome."
Lord Alderdice praised the RUC and British army for their courage in standing up to the violence generated against them by paramilitaries on both sides. He also praised the woman who gave evidence against Billy Wright which led to his being imprisoned even though it meant she had to leave Northern Ireland for her own safety.
The Alliance leader contended that journalists could not simply be objective observers of Northern politics. "If journalists put it about that the only politicians of interest are the extremists, then don't be surprised if that is the judgment that people come to," he said.
"All our people have a responsibility. A moral stand is right for all of us. There are tremendous opportunities up ahead if we can grasp them," Lord Alderdice concluded.
