IRAQ ANALYSIS: Agreement with al-Mahdi army could be a step towards ending the insurgency, writes Michael Jansen.
The agreement reached on Saturday between the interim Iraqi government and the al-Mahdi army of the rebel Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr could be a significant breakthrough in the campaign to end the insurgency.
Today Mr al-Sadr's militiamen are to begin handing in mortars, anti-aircraft guns and rocket-propelled grenades to Iraqi security forces. They will also cease firing on US patrols in Baghdad's Shia slum neighbourhood of Sadr City, the cleric's main base of support. The militiamen have until Friday to complete the handover of these heavy weapons for which they will be recompensed.
Once the process is completed, the Iraqi police will search Sadr City to confirm compliance and the Iraqi government will assess compensation to be paid for damage inflicted during military operations against the militants on homes, workshops and shops in the desperately poor suburb.
In exchange the US has agreed to end constant artillery and air bombardments of Sadr City, which have killed scores of civilians in recent weeks, and to allow militiamen to keep side arms and automatic weapons normally present in Iraqi households. Although the deal is seen by the Iraqi authorities and the US as a first step towards the disbandment of the al-Mahdi army, the militia is not yet obliged to dissolve itself. Washington has also promised to carry out major development projects in the area.
Mr Karim al-Bakhati, a spokesman for Mr al-Sadr, indicated how seriously the movement was taking the agreement when he said: "Whoever breaches \ will be considered an outlaw and an apostate." Exclusion from the community of believers, the Umma, is a particularly grave sentence to be passed on any Muslim.
The Iraqi government is especially eager for success because on earlier occasions Mr al-Sadr failed to meet commitments to halt hostilities and disarm. Scholars of Islam observe that by refusing to honour pledges given in the heat of battle, he has simply followed the Shia practice of "taqiya", or tactical deception, which has ensured the survival of the 10 per cent Shia minority in the worldwide Muslim community.
By reaching a deal at this time, Mr al-Sadr seems to be trying to preserve his popularity with Sadr City dwellers who want to end relentless US military pressure and to resume normal life. His followers were widely criticised by Najaf and Kufa residents for initiating fighting, which devastated these cities during the summer.
The agreement is significant for several reasons. It could be extended to hundreds of al-Mahdi army fighters in the southern cities of Amarra and Basra, depleting the ranks of the resistance there. Mr al-Sadr has indicated that he could disband his militia and take up politics. His removal as a focus of resistance would seriously undercut the insurgency. His participation in politics leading up to elections scheduled for January 2005 would give the poll legitimacy.
Finally, the deal with Mr al-Sadr could serve as a model for the restive Sunni cities of Falluja, Baqouba and Ramadi. Indeed, negotiations between the government and elements in Falluja, the main stronghold of Sunni insurgents, have been taking place for several weeks. Mr Khaled al-Jumaili, of the Falluja mujahedeen (resistance) council, said on Saturday: "A delegation from Falluja is now discussing the entry of Iraqi National Guards to the city with the defence ministry." He said the citizens of Falluja, a no-go area for Iraqi guardsmen and US forces since April, wish to take part in the elections.
However, Mr al-Jumaili and other moderates on the council have been repeatedly over-ruled by militant members. Falluja is also said to be the main base for foreign fighters, notably followers of the Jordanian Abu Musab Zarqawi, who claim responsibility for taking and brutally executing foreign hostages.
The presence of these fighters in Falluja could make it impossible to reach a ceasefire with the government, preventing Prime Minister Iyad Allawi from establishing control of all the country before the elections.