YESTERDAY's appalling midair collision in the skies over northern India highlights a growing concern in the industry how to maintain safety standards when the industry is likely to double over the next decade, writes Keith Harper.
Although the industry's safety record is good, airline companies are concerned that their long term credibility will only be enhanced if they set a bold target to reduce the accident rate by half over the same period.
This important benchmark has already been set by the International Air Transport Association, which represents 250 of the world's largest carriers, including the two companies, Saudi Arabian Airlines and Kazakhstan Airlines, which were involved in yesterday's accident.
After a relatively quiet period when the general level of accidents was low, the past 12 months have seen a disturbing surge upward in the accident rate, culminating, before yesterday, in the mysterious crash of TWA's Flight 800 soon after leaving New York last July. IATA has candidly told its members that the industry will never halve the accident rate until all commercial aircraft are fitted with two important safety devices.
In the industry's jargon, one is called the "traffic collision avoidance system" and the other "the ground proximity warning system". The systems give pilots vertical and horizontal controls of possible hazards in all directions. The controls should have been on the Saudi Boeing. It is less certain that they were fitted to the Tupolev Tu 154, the workhorse, aircraft of countries which belonged to the former Soviet Union.
The traffic collision avoidance system is designed to warn cockpit crews of imminent collision and can give advice right up to 20 seconds before impact. Since mid-air collisions are rare, this factor is likely to figure strongly in the inquiry. Both safety devices are being pressed on all airlines internationally in the hope that there will be an agreement by 2000.
The safety record of the Tupolev, which resembles an old Boeing 727, has not been very good. Kazakhstan Airlines, which has 70 aircraft, operates in an area of the world, which has a poor record with air crashes. The Tu can carry about 170 passengers.
The Russian government has already been warned by IATA to tighten up on aviation safety procedures or invite more air disasters. This is because the state airline, Aeroflot, was fragmented into 15 separate airlines when the Soviet Union was broken up, and no proper check was made on the credentials of the new carriers, of which Kazakhstan was one.
Saudi Arabian has some 70 aircraft, and until yesterday, its safety record was excellent.
A possible external factor which could have a bearing on the investigation is the current upheaval in India's air traffic control. Delhi airport does not enjoy a good reputation with pilots and was almost certainly responsible for controlling the two aircraft. It is one of several airports in India undergoing a huge modernisation programme.
The airport does have a relatively good safety record, with dozens of landings and take-offs in a day. However, more foreign investors coming to Delhi along with a fire last month which completely gutted the Airbus departure terminal at the domestic airport, some miles away, has increased congestion in the skies.
The air traffic controllers' union, which called off a strike just hours ahead of last night's disaster, blamed the crash on the use of a single arrival and departure route at the airport, which directs all traffic along a narrow corridor.