Ahern should remember the undecideds and resist temptation offered by phenomenally high support

April's record rating for Mr Ahern's party has given way to May's record rating

April's record rating for Mr Ahern's party has given way to May's record rating. Almost two-thirds of those who expressed a preference said they would vote for Fianna Fail.

Excluding Don't Knows, party support now stands at a phenomenal 63 per cent. Analysis of recent transfer patterns shows that Fianna Fail could hope to win an overall Dail majority with 45 per cent support.

In other words, they could lose a full 18 percentage points from their current standing and still form a single-party government.

However, as Fianna Fail Ministers attempt to keep their feet on the ground for long enough to finish their breakfasts this morning, they should reflect on what happened in 1992. In June of that year - just before the referendum on the Maastricht Treaty - the party, also in government then, was on 53 per cent, according to an Irish Times/MRBI poll. In the general election five months later party support fell to an all-time low of 39 per cent.

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In addition one voter in five is undecided, more than the one in eight in the polls of last month and December last.

Past Fianna Fail taoisigh who have been tempted by opinion poll results to cut and run for an overall majority have been punished by the electorate. This present Taoiseach is not known for recklessness.

Support for the parties among those who expressed a preference (with the core vote in brackets) is: Fianna Fail 63 per cent (51); Fine Gael 18 (15) Labour nine (eight), Sinn Fein three (three); Greens two (two); Democratic Left, the Workers' Party and the Progressive Democrats one each (one); and Others two (two).

Thus since last month - excluding undecided voters - Fianna Fail has gained six percentage points at the expense of Fine Gael, Labour and the Progressive Democrats, which have lost two each.

The change since last December is even more dramatic. Fianna Fail has put on 13 percentage points while Fine Gael has lost eight points, Labour lost four and the PDs two.

Sinn Fein's drop of one percentage point since last month is of no great statistical significance. While excluding the Don't Knows, its support nationally stands at 3 per cent, in Dublin at 5 per cent and in the 18-24 age group at 10 per cent.

However, low figures such as these must be treated with caution due to the margin of error.

There is no precise information in this poll as to why Fianna Fail has registered such a high level of support. It is reasonable to speculate that it relates to the subject which has dominated Irish politics in recent months, the negotiation and signing of the Belfast Agreement.

Eighty-three per cent believe Fianna Fail has handled the debate on the Belfast Agreement well or adequately. Seventy-six per cent believe the same in relation to Fine Gael, 71 per cent in relation to Labour and 67 per cent in relation to the PDs.

The personal profile of the Fianna Fail leader and Taoiseach on the Northern Ireland issue recently has been very high and very positive.

The satisfaction ratings of party leaders were not tested in this poll, but it is reasonable to speculate that Mr Ahern's remarkable 84 per cent satisfaction rating of last month would have been at least matched in the present poll.

The Government satisfaction rating, at 72 per cent, is one point down on April's figure, although still remarkably high.

In stark contrast to Fianna Fail's performance, the Progressive Democrats are failing to reap any electoral benefits from participation in a Government with a very high approval rating. The party now barely registers at 1 per cent support.

Fine Gael's core party support at just 15 per cent is the lowest in over four years. Labour's at 8 per cent is its lowest for at least six years, apart from last year's eve-of-general-election poll.

Democratic Left members, currently debating the party's future, will take little comfort from its 1 per cent standing.

In short, there is nothing to cheer anyone in this poll except Fianna Fail. Its figure may be artificially high, but it is nevertheless spectacular.